瑞达期货合成橡胶产业日报-20260128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term production and trade enterprise inventories are expected to change little. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week showed mixed trends. The semi - steel tire production slightly increased due to foreign trade orders, while the all - steel tire production decreased due to increased shipment pressure. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to be stable and slightly weak in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the BR2603 contract in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 13,265 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 220 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 76,340, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,155. The 3 - 4 spread of synthetic rubber is 10 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 9,420 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 100 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical in Shandong, Shanghai, and Guangdong is 12,800 yuan/ton, all with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 365 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 220 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is 67.57 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.98 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is 62.39 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.76 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 568.5 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.75 US dollars/ton. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of butadiene CFR China is 1270 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 10,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity of butadiene is 159,300 tons, unchanged; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 69.45%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 34,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10,100 tons. The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 53.6%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.31 percentage points [2] 3.4 Production and Inventory of Synthetic Rubber - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 143,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 13,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.38%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 76.12%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.56 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 1,002 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 281 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber is 35,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 500 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory is 29,050 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2,150 tons; the weekly trader inventory is 6,350 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,690 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million pieces, with a decrease; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million pieces, with an increase. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 46.8 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.7 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 48.53 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.61 days. As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 73.84%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 62.53%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - There were few shutdowns of domestic butadiene rubber plants recently, supply remained high, and downstream procurement continued to push down prices due to sufficient spot resources. Affected by shipment pressure and production profit, the inventory of some production enterprises still increased this week, while downstream low - price procurement increased due to the price advantage of arbitrage resources [2]