铂钯金期货日报-20260128

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the medium - to - long term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm. Due to the uncertainty of South Africa's power supply and Russia's exports, along with the implementation of new automobile emission policies, platinum is more resilient than palladium. The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend. The London platinum price is expected to face resistance at $2800 per ounce and find support at $2600 per ounce, while the London palladium price may face resistance at $2100 per ounce and find support at $1900 per ounce [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 694.80 yuan/gram, a decrease of 1.20 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 504.00 yuan/gram, a decrease of 9.25 yuan. The main - contract holding volume of platinum was 10387.00 hands, a decrease of 277.00 hands; the main - contract holding volume of palladium was 3179.00 hands, an increase of 90.00 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 670.45 yuan/gram, a decrease of 15.25 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River was 460.00 yuan/gram, a decrease of 20.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 24.35 yuan/gram, a decrease of 14.05 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract was - 44.00 yuan/gram, a decrease of 10.75 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in the CFTC (weekly) were 9966.00 contracts, a decrease of 243.00 contracts; the non - commercial long positions of palladium in the CFTC (weekly) were 3003.00 contracts, a decrease of 342.00 contracts. The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, a decrease of 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, a decrease of 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, an increase of 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, a decrease of 27.00 tons [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index was 95.76, a decrease of 1.28; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.90%, unchanged. The VIX volatility index was 16.35, an increase of 0.20 [2] 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump said that the US is deploying troops to Iran and imposing a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran, and has also imposed a new round of sanctions on entities and ships related to Iran's energy and shipping systems. Trump also said that the US expects to obtain "sovereignty" over the area where the US military base is located in Greenland. Multiple Democratic senators in the US will vote against the government appropriation bill, increasing the possibility of a partial government shutdown at the end of January. Trump may announce the new Fed chairperson as early as this week, and Rick Rieder of BlackRock has a 50% chance of being nominated. Trump has decided to raise the tariff rate on South Korean cars, timber, pharmaceutical products, etc. from 15% to 25% [2] 3.6 Market Performance - The main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange weakened in intraday trading, while the spot prices of platinum and palladium in London rebounded strongly due to the sharp rise of gold. The continuous strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar has increased the holding cost of RMB - denominated platinum and palladium, resulting in weaker recent price increases in the domestic platinum and palladium markets compared to overseas [2] 3.7 Demand Outlook - The EU's formal postponement of the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and the strengthening of automobile exhaust emission standards at the end of last year will increase the demand for platinum in automobile catalysts by about 450,000 ounces this year. Although the global passenger car sales are slightly adjusted downwards due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum. The IEA's latest hydrogen outlook confirms that the cumulative installed capacity of PEM electrolyzers is expected to exceed 17GW by 2030, providing potential price support for platinum [2] 3.8 Key Events to Watch - On January 28 at 02:00, the US M2 money supply; on January 29 at 03:00, the Fed's interest - rate decision and monetary policy statement; on January 29 at 21:30, the US November trade balance (imports and exports); on January 30 at 21:30, the US PPI year - on - year (%) [2]