苹果产业日报-20260128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pre - Spring Festival apple stocking atmosphere remains weak. Merchants' procurement is concentrated in Gansu and Liaoning production areas, while trading in Shandong and Shaanxi remains light with slow shipment speed. The shipment of paper - laminated apples in Shanxi production area has accelerated slightly [2]. - The Spring Festival stocking of late - Fuji apple production areas has improved slightly, with the shipment in the origin increasing month - on - month. Snowfall in some production areas within the week slightly affected shipment. As of January 21, 2026, the inventory in apple cold storages in the main production areas across the country was 682780 tons, a decrease of 21880 tons from the previous week, and the inventory removal speed accelerated month - on - month [2]. - In the Shandong production area, the storage capacity ratio was 50.30%, a decrease of 0.87% from the previous week. In the Shaanxi production area, the storage capacity ratio was 52.76%, a decrease of 1.56% from the previous week. The overall shipment in the Shandong production area accelerated slightly, but snowfall affected the shipment speed in individual areas, and the number of customers inspecting goods in the storage increased slightly. The inventory removal in Shaanxi increased month - on - month. In production areas such as Yan'an and Weinan, the number of inquiring customers increased, and customers packaged and shipped their own inventory, with the shipment increasing slightly compared with the previous period. The transactions of fruit farmers' goods were mainly high - quality general goods and high - grade secondary goods [2]. - In the sales area market, the number of incoming trucks decreased, the transit inventory was overstocked, the market customers were still scarce, and the sales were relatively slow. From the perspective of the market, the festival effect is limited, and short - term price fluctuations intensify [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract was 9532 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract was 100002 lots, a decrease of 5668 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 1410 lots, an increase of 351 lots [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) was 5.25 yuan/jin, and that in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) was 2.4 yuan/jin, both unchanged. The spot price of apples in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commodities) was 4.2 yuan/jin, and that in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80 first - grade) was 3.7 yuan/jin, both unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national apple output was 51285100 tons, and the output of second - grade fruit farmers' goods was 1683400 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly apple wholesale price was 9.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg. The average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.29 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.09 yuan/kg. The total inventory in national apple cold storages was 682780 tons, a decrease of 21880 tons. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 0.5, a decrease of 0.01, and that in Shaanxi was 0.53, a decrease of 0.02. The monthly apple export volume was 160000 tons, an increase of 40000 tons. The monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts was 17753550000 US dollars, and the year - on - year increase of the monthly apple export amount was 6574090000 US dollars. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged apples of 80 was 0 yuan/jin [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears was 6.52 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of bananas was 6.97 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons was 5.9 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.05 yuan/kg. The average daily number of incoming trucks in the early morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market was 11.2, a decrease of 0.6; the average daily number of incoming trucks in the early morning at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market was 15.6, a decrease of 2.2; the average daily number of incoming trucks in the early morning at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market was 23.4, a decrease of 1.2 [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples was 24.88%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples was 24.88%, a decrease of 0.17% [2]