瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260128

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The port methanol inventory is expected to decline, with a focus on the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in提货量 in the short term. The domestic methanol - to - olefins开工率 is expected to decline. It is recommended to trade the MA2605 contract in the range of 2280 - 2380 [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2339 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 35 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is - 21 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 824,556 lots, a decrease of 22,263 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 114,489 lots, an increase of 11,889 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,595, a decrease of 100 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2285 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1797.5 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 467.5 yuan/ton, down 22.5 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 54 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 268 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 322 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 279 euros/ton, up 9 euros/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 54 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 6.49 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.03 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 102.53 tons, a decrease of 1.36 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 43.22 tons, an increase of 3.58 tons. The methanol import profit is - 15.78 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.41 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 173.4 tons, an increase of 31.64 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 424,100 tons, a decrease of 14,200 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 89.92%, a decrease of 1.19 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 34.51%, an increase of 0.28 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.25%, an increase of 1.51 percentage points; the acetic acid operating rate is 80.67%, an increase of 2.27 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate is 68.01%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points; the olefin operating rate is 84.29%, a decrease of 1.48 percentage points. The methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit is - 1039 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 24.97%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.26%, an increase of 0.28 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 25.08%, a decrease of 2.69 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 25.08%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of January 28, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 42.41 tons, a decrease of 1.42 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 3.24%; the pending orders of sample enterprises are 26.57 tons, an increase of 2.74 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 11.50%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports is 147.21 tons, an increase of 1.46 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China has increased by 4.76 tons, and the inventory in South China has decreased by 3.3 tons. The domestic methanol production has decreased due to more capacity losses from maintenance and production cuts than capacity output from recovery. As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 85.15%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.78%. The MTO plant of Zhejiang Xingxing continues to be shut down, and the load of some enterprises continues to decrease [2]