瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260128

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The total supply of natural rubber is shrinking as the domestic main producing areas are in the off - season, and the northern Thailand and northern Vietnam are transitioning to reduced production and off - season. The overall inventory in Qingdao Port shows a slight de - stocking trend, with the bonded warehouse de - stocking and the general trade warehouse's inventory accumulation narrowing. The demand side shows that the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates. The production of semi - steel tires is supported by foreign trade orders, while the full - steel tires face greater shipment pressure, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be stable but slightly weak in the short term. The ru2605 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 16000 - 16500, and the nr2603 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 12900 - 13350 [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 16360 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 155 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 80 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13190 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 105 yuan/ton; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 30 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3170 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan/ton. The trading volume and net positions of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber also show corresponding changes [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of various rubber products in the spot market have different changes. For example, the price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15950 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Thai standard STR20 is 1940 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. The basis of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber also shows corresponding changes [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference prices of different forms of Thai raw rubber have different changes. The RSS3 theoretical production profit is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the STR20 theoretical production profit is - 5 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 17 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technical - classified natural rubber is 19.93 million tons, with an increase of 3.05 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 39.63 million tons, with an increase of 9.41 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of full - steel tires and semi - steel tires are 62.62% and 74.56% respectively, with the full - steel tire operating rate decreasing by 2.9 percentage points and the semi - steel tire operating rate increasing by 0.17 percentage points. The inventory days of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.8 days and 48.53 days respectively, with corresponding increases. The monthly production of full - steel tires is 12.86 million pieces, with a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly production of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million pieces, with an increase of 80,000 pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 16.57%, with a decrease of 0.09 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.21%, with a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options is 22.76%, with a decrease of 1.16 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and an increase of about 13% compared with the same period last year. In 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade is 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, with a decrease rate of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory is 94,500 tons, with a decrease rate of 5.03%; the general trade inventory is 490,000 tons, with an increase rate of 0.95% [2]