软商品日报-20260128

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Sugar: Last week, the decline in raw sugar led to a simultaneous decline in domestic sugar. With limited bullish factors, the probability of further price increases is relatively low. Current domestic sugar demand is average, and yesterday's spot price continued to decline, providing no positive support for the futures market [3]. - Cotton: Although domestic downstream yarn mills have poor profits, the overall inventory pressure is not significant, and there is no obvious negative feedback. Xinjiang yarn mills are operating at a high load, supporting the rigid consumption of cotton. Cotton prices are likely to rise under the expectation of tight supply and demand, but in the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton prices are restricted by the internal - external price difference. It is recommended to buy on dips rather than chase the rise, and focus on downstream import and new order trends [14]. - Apple: Recently, apple demand has slowed down and spot prices have weakened, but the futures market is relatively strong. The reduction of short positions in near - month contracts has driven the price up, and the long - position power in the main contract has increased. Future attention should be paid to whether the logic of shortage of delivery products will return to the market [20]. - Red Dates: The production of red dates in the 2025/2026 season has been determined, and the market focus is on the change in demand. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream buyers are mainly making rigid restocking. In the short - term, red date prices may remain volatile at a low level. In the long - term, the overall supply - demand of red dates in the new domestic season is loose, and prices will continue to be under pressure [25]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - Price and Spread: On January 28, 2026, SR01 closed at 5308 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.23% and a weekly increase of 0.80%. The spreads between different contracts also showed certain changes. For example, SR01 - 05 was 128, down 3 from the previous day and up 21 for the week [4]. - Basis: The basis between different regions (Nanning, Kunming) and different sugar contracts also changed. For example, the basis of Nanning - SR01 on January 27 was - 26, up 7 from the previous day and down 66 for the week [9]. - Import Price: The quota - in and quota - out import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar changed. For example, the Brazilian import quota - in price was 4049 yuan/ton, up 8 from the previous day and down 35 for the week; the quota - out price was 5129 yuan/ton, up 11 from the previous day and down 46 for the week [12]. Cotton - Futures Price: On the reporting day, cotton 01 closed at 15365 yuan/ton, up 275 (1.82%); cotton 05 closed at 14940 yuan/ton, up 375 (2.57%); cotton 09 closed at 15010 yuan/ton, up 300 (2.04%) [15]. - Spread: The cotton basis was 1430, up 85; the spread between different cotton contracts and the spread between cotton and yarn also had corresponding changes [15]. Apple - Futures and Spot Price: On January 28, 2026, AP01 closed at 8302 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.4% and a weekly increase of 1.39%. The spot prices of different grades of apples in different regions also showed different trends. For example, the price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 4 yuan/jin, with a daily increase of 0% and a weekly decrease of 2% [20]. - Spread and Basis: The spreads between different apple contracts (AP01 - 05, AP05 - 10, etc.) and the basis of the main contract also changed. For example, AP01 - 05 was - 1235, with a daily increase of 0.65% and a weekly increase of 0.65%; the main contract basis was - 106, with a daily increase of 4.95% and a weekly increase of 404.76% [20]. Red Dates - Futures Spread: The spreads between different red date contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) showed different trends in different time periods [26][28]. - Price Trends: The price trends of red dates in Xinjiang's main production areas and the wholesale prices of first - grade grey dates in main sales areas also showed certain changes over time [29].