黑色产业链日报-20260128

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market has a neutral fundamental situation with a range - bound trend. Supply - side blast furnace profits are stable, electric furnace profits are weakening, and short - term production may continue to increase. Demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is seasonally weakening, and inventory will continue to accumulate [3]. - The iron ore market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term, with seasonal inventory accumulation. However, due to the support from the steel market and the expected restocking by steel mills, the downside price space is limited [23]. - The coking coal market shows a pattern of "strong spot, weak futures", and the basis is at a high level. Short - term spot prices may face回调 pressure, and medium - to - long - term prices may face significant downward pressure under certain conditions [33]. - The ferroalloy market is in a range - bound pattern between the cost line and the previous pressure level. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are slightly better than those of silicomanganese [50]. - The soda ash market has an increasing excess supply expectation with new capacity coming on - stream. Although exports are high, the high inventory of the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price [64]. - The glass market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is difficult to have a trend - based movement. The high inventory of the mid - stream needs to be digested, and the spot market is under pressure [87]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Price Data: - Rebar: On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3200, 3123, and 3169 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - Hot - rolled coil: On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3326, 3280, and 3301 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - Spot prices: On January 28, 2026, the rebar summary price in China was 3313 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton [9][12]. - Spread Data: - Rebar spreads: On January 28, 2026, the 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 spreads were 77, - 46, and - 31 respectively [4]. - Hot - rolled coil spreads: On January 28, 2026, the 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 spreads were 46, - 21, and - 25 respectively [4]. - Other spreads: The roll - rebar spread, basis, and other spreads also have corresponding values and changes [9][12][17]. Iron Ore - Price Data: - Futures prices: On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 752.5, 783, and 764.5 yuan/ton respectively [24]. - Spot prices: On January 28, 2026, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 793 yuan/ton [24]. - Fundamental Data: - On January 23, 2026, the daily average pig iron output was 228.1 thousand tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 310.73 thousand tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 16766.53 thousand tons [28]. Coking Coal and Coke - Price and Spread Data: - Coking coal spreads: On January 28, 2026, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads were - 178, - 80, and 258 respectively [36]. - Coke spreads: On January 28, 2026, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads were - 91.5, - 71, and 162.5 respectively [36]. - Other data: The basis, coking profit, and other indicators also have corresponding values and changes [36]. - Spot Prices: - On January 28, 2026, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1640 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1280 yuan/ton [39]. Ferroalloy - Ferrosilicon Data: - On January 28, 2026, the basis in Ningxia was - 32 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5350 yuan/ton [51]. - Silicomanganese Data: - On January 28, 2026, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 188 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5570 yuan/ton [52]. Soda Ash - Price and Spread Data: - On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1198, 1259, and 1295 yuan/ton respectively [65]. - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads were - 61, - 36, and 97 respectively [65]. - Spot Prices: - On January 28, 2026, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton [65]. Glass - Price and Spread Data: - On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1067, 1173, and 1227 yuan/ton respectively [88]. - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads were - 106, - 54, and 160 respectively [88]. - Sales and Production Data: - On January 27, 2026, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 122%, and in Hubei was 138% [89].