永安期货有色早报-20260129

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a bullish outlook on copper prices in the medium - term, as the copper fundamentals feature limited supply and increasing demand. For aluminum, the LME 0 - 3M spread has returned to negative, but the overseas active restocking supports the aluminum price. In the case of zinc, although the domestic fundamentals are average, the market is optimistic about its price increase due to limited long - term capital investment and potential supply disruptions. Nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak, with a game between short - term policies and fundamentals. Stainless steel's price is mainly driven by nickel price in the short term. Lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17100 - 17600 next week. Tin can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter, but may face significant downward fluctuations in the second half of 2026 if the macro situation changes. Industrial silicon's price is expected to oscillate with cost in the short term and at the cycle bottom in the long term. Lithium carbonate's short - term supply and demand is close to balance in January, and a spot - futures resonance market may occur later [1][2][7][12][14][16][19][22][24]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - Price and Inventory: From January 22 to 28, 2026, the spot import profit increased by 630.87, and the LME inventory increased by 1575. The copper price dropped to test the 99,000 support level during the week and then rose significantly on Friday night [1]. - Market Outlook: The US's ability to siphon inventory is disappearing, causing concerns about inventory delivery to LME or outflow from the US. However, global consumption is strong, and copper has strong rigid demand support. In China, the pre - Spring Festival inventory accumulation may be faster than expected, but the post - festival inventory reduction may also be rapid. The medium - term outlook for copper prices is bullish [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory: From January 22 to 28, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 390, and the LME inventory decreased by 2275. The aluminum ingot basis and downstream processing fees are still low, and the apparent demand for aluminum ingots and aluminum products has rebounded [1][2]. - Market Outlook: In December 2026, automobile consumption was below expectations and is expected to decline further after the subsidy is withdrawn. However, the photovoltaic installation volume increased better than expected, and there is an expectation of rush - exporting, providing short - term support for domestic demand. The LME 0 - 3M spread has returned to negative, and the overseas active restocking supports the aluminum price [2]. Zinc - Price and Inventory: From January 22 to 28, 2026, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 480, and the LME inventory decreased by 175. The domestic zinc supply is tight in the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026, and the smelting profit is supported by high sulfuric acid and silver prices [6][7]. - Market Outlook: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. The export window was opened in December 2025, and the import window is currently closed. The market is optimistic about zinc's price increase, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [7]. Nickel - Price and Inventory: From January 22 to 28, 2026, the沪镍现货 price decreased by 2400, and the LME inventory increased by 612. The pure nickel production decreased slightly month - on - month, and the demand is weak. The domestic inventory has slightly increased, and the LME inventory has remained stable [11][12]. - Market Outlook: The short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is a game between short - term policies (such as Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining and the plan to cut nickel ore quotas) and fundamentals [12]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory: From January 22 to 28, 2026, the 304 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 100. The steel mill production is maintained at a high level, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, the cost of nickel iron has stabilized slightly, and the chromium iron price has remained unchanged. The inventory has decreased slightly from a high level, and the warehouse receipts have remained stable [13][14]. - Market Outlook: The fundamentals are generally weak, and the price is mainly driven by the nickel price in the short term [14]. Lead - Price and Inventory: From January 22 to 28, 2026, the LME inventory decreased by 2000. The primary lead production is driven by profit, and the recycled lead has resumed production after environmental inspections. The battery demand is expected to weaken, and the supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated, with inventory accumulation starting in the second week [15][16]. - Market Outlook: The lead price is expected to oscillate in the range of 17100 - 17600 next week, and the scrap battery price - holding sentiment will weaken as the lead price falls [16]. Tin - Price and Inventory: From January 22 to 28, 2026, the LME inventory decreased by 25. The tin price has oscillated upward, and it is favored by long - position funds due to the resource - country disturbances and AI consumption growth expectations. The domestic inventory has slightly increased due to the delivery of leading enterprises, and the overseas LME inventory has oscillated upward [19]. - Market Outlook: In the short term, the domestic fundamentals are not weak, and tin can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter. In the long term, 2026 is a year with a large - scale supply recovery, and there may be significant downward fluctuations in the second half of the year if the macro situation changes [19]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory: From January 22 to 28, 2026, the production in the southwest region is at a low level, and the production in Inner Mongolia has decreased. The overall monthly supply has continued to shrink, and it is expected to be less than 400,000 tons in January [22]. - Market Outlook: In the short term, the supply and demand are close to balance, and the price is expected to oscillate with cost. In the long term, the industrial silicon capacity is still in a large - scale over - supply situation, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [22]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory: From January 22 to 28, 2026, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 500. The price on the futures market has been strong, driven by the expected production suspension in Jiangxi and the larger - than - expected inventory reduction and upstream maintenance. The raw material inventory of most non - integrated lithium salt plants is relatively sufficient, and the lithium salt plant's processing fee has further increased [24]. - Market Outlook: In the short term, the supply and demand in January is close to balance, and the actual inventory reduction is greatly affected by the maintenance intensity. The inventory in the upstream and downstream is low, and the intermediate link accounts for a high proportion. The price is greatly affected by the futures market expectations and sentiment. A spot - futures resonance market may occur if the expectations cool down or the intermediate - link inventory reaches a low level [24].