建信期货豆粕日报-20260129

Group 1: General Information - Industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: January 29, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Domestic Contracts: For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the pre - settlement price was 3074, the opening price was 3075, the highest price was 3083, the lowest price was 3065, the closing price was 3080, with a rise of 6 and a rise rate of 0.20%. The trading volume was 94,600, the open interest was 445,770, and the open interest change was - 22,460. The soybean meal 2605 contract had a pre - settlement price of 2766, an opening price of 2769, a highest price of 2789, a lowest price of 2765, a closing price of 2782, a rise of 16 and a rise rate of 0.58%. The trading volume was 793,254, the open interest was 2,184,028, and the open interest change was 5,766. The soybean meal 2607 contract had a pre - settlement price of 2711, an opening price of 2710, a highest price of 2728, a lowest price of 2707, a closing price of 2726, a rise of 15 and a rise rate of 0.55%. The trading volume was 36,632, the open interest was 451,000, and the open interest change was 6,146 [6] - External Market: The US soybean futures contracts rebounded, with the main contract approaching 1075 cents. The previous rebound was due to the digestion of negative factors. Although the January USDA report raised the end - of - season inventory of US soybeans in the new season, the price was far below the planting cost, so the downside was limited. Also, the weekly export data of US soybeans was good for two consecutive weeks, and there were relatively positive expectations in the biodiesel policy. However, fundamentally, due to the basically determined high - yield pattern of Brazilian soybeans, the subsequent supply pressure would always put pressure on the market. If US soybean exports weakened or the weather in Argentina improved, the external market might fall below 1050 cents [6] Operation Suggestions - The domestic soybean meal 05 and subsequent contracts are priced according to the external cost. Since there is a lack of potential positive factors in CBOT, the overall situation is a range - bound oscillation, with a slightly bearish view on rebounds. The risk is that if the subsequent auction of imported soybeans fails to meet expectations, it may drive the spot price to rise more than expected, which may have a slight driving effect on the 05 contract [6] Group 3: Industry News - Brazil: As of last Thursday, the harvesting progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop reached 4.9% of the planting area. The expected output of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop was raised to 181 million tons from the previous 180.4 million tons. If the weather is favorable later, the global supply of grains and oilseeds will be more abundant. The initial harvesting and planting progress are in line with the seasonal pattern, and the future market focus will shift to the confirmation of unit yield and changes in the weather in the producing areas [9] - China's Purchase Progress: As of January 27, the cumulative purchase of the January shipment was 4.704 million tons, with a purchase progress of 100%. The cumulative purchase of the February shipment was 8.858 million tons, with a purchase progress of 93.24%. The cumulative purchase of the March shipment was 11.588 million tons, with a weekly increase of 594,000 tons and a purchase progress of 96.57%. The cumulative purchase of the April shipment was 6.373 million tons, with a weekly increase of 1.249 million tons and a purchase progress of 55.42%. The cumulative purchase of the May shipment was 3.141 million tons, with a weekly increase of 198,000 tons and a purchase progress of 27.31%. The cumulative purchase of the June shipment was 2.384 million tons, with a weekly increase of 330,000 tons and a purchase progress of 21.67%. The cumulative purchase of the July shipment was 726,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 132,000 tons and a purchase progress of 7.41%. The cumulative purchase of the August shipment was 198,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 66,000 tons and a purchase progress of 2.2% [9] - Argentina: Recently, the temperature in Argentina soared to nearly 40 degrees Celsius, and the main agricultural areas urgently need rainfall, but significant precipitation is not expected until February. Due to weather concerns, the estimated output of Argentine soybeans was lowered by 2 million tons to 47 million tons. The predicted output of Brazilian soybeans is 179 million tons, higher than the previous prediction of 178 million tons. However, it was emphasized that the Brazilian soybean crop still faces risks, and high - temperature and drought weather may affect the output [10] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures included are about the spread between soybean meal 1 - 5 contracts, the spread between soybean meal 5 - 9 contracts, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, the ex - factory price of soybean meal, and the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][15][16]