纯碱、玻璃日报-20260129

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soda ash market is facing dual pressures of increasing supply and shrinking demand, with the downstream destocking motivation insufficient and the inventory accumulation trend expected to continue. In the short - term, it may maintain a volatile pattern, while in the long - term, it is expected to continue a weak operation. It is not recommended to blindly layout long positions before the core contradiction of oversupply is fundamentally alleviated [6]. - The glass industry is generally in a loss state, and the supply is expected to further tighten before the Spring Festival. Although the current inventory level is still high, the short - term supply contraction will be the main supporting factor for the price. However, the downstream real - estate data is weak year - on - year, and the demand expectation is under pressure. Before the substantial benefits such as capacity clearance are realized, the price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly strong pattern. It is recommended to gradually reduce short positions [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Soda Ash Market Review: On January 28, the main soda ash contract SA605 oscillated strongly, closing at 1,198 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous day, with an intraday increase of 22,832 lots. The supply - demand fundamentals show that the market is under pressure from increasing supply and shrinking demand, and the downstream float glass industry's fundamentals are weakening [5][6]. - Glass Market Review: On January 28, 2025, the main glass futures contract FG2605 oscillated weakly. The glass industry is in a loss state, and the supply is expected to tighten. The current inventory is high, and the short - term supply contraction will support the price, but the downstream real - estate demand is weak [7]. - Operation Suggestions: For soda ash, do not blindly layout long positions before the oversupply problem is solved. For glass, it is recommended to gradually reduce short positions as the price approaches the key support level [6][7]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides figures on the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, with data sources including Wind and iFind [9][12][15]