建信期货聚烯烃日报-20260129

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: January 29, 2026 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price increase of polyolefins is mainly driven by the geopolitical risk sentiment of crude oil, and its supply - demand structure has not changed substantially. In the short term, attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran situation. If crude oil strengthens further, it may support the price to remain high. However, as downstream enters the holiday season and procurement weakens, polyolefins have weak self - drive, and there is a risk of price correction after the cost - driven sentiment fades [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Futures market: For plastics, L2605 opened higher, fluctuated upward during the session, and closed up at 6967 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (1.31%), with a trading volume of 560,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 10,445 lots to 531,205 lots. For PP2605, it closed at 6778 yuan/ton, up 87 yuan (1.30%), with an increase in open interest of 17,500 lots to 543,400 lots [5][6] - Market drivers: The US dollar weakened to a new low, the situation in the Middle East may intensify further, crude oil strengthened, and polyolefins rebounded following the cost fluctuations. In terms of industry fundamentals, the supply of polypropylene increased slightly due to the reduction of maintenance, but some supplies were still structurally tight; the supply of polyethylene tended to be loose under the dual influence of import arrivals and new production capacity expectations. High - priced raw materials generally suppressed downstream procurement. Although there was still rigid demand for stocking before the Spring Festival, the overall operation was cautious, and some small and medium - sized factories had gradually entered the holiday state [6] 2. Industry News - Inventory: On January 28, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 550,000 tons, a 50,000 - ton increase (10.00%) from the previous working day, compared with 450,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - Price: PE market prices mostly rose. LLDPE prices were 6750 - 7100 yuan/ton in North China, 6830 - 7100 yuan/ton in East China, and 6950 - 7150 yuan/ton in South China. The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 6320 - 6380 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton from the previous working day. PP market prices also increased, with the mainstream拉丝 price at 6490 - 6590 yuan/ton in North China, 6520 - 6680 yuan/ton in East China, and 6470 - 6680 yuan/ton in South China [7] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][11][15]