建信期货棉花日报-20260129

Group 1: Report Basics - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Date: January 29, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Recommendations Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton prices soared. The latest price index for 328-grade cotton was 15,933 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream basis for 31-grade double 29/ impurity within 3 for machine-picked cotton in southern Xinjiang's Kashgar in the 2025/26 season was mostly at CF05 + 950 or higher, with the 950 - 1000 basis range narrowing. In northern Xinjiang, it was mostly above 1100, with some below, and many quotes close to 1200 or higher, all for self-pickup in Xinjiang [7]. - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market was divided. Some inland spinning enterprises gradually reduced production capacity, and small spinning enterprises began to take holidays. Orders lacked sustainability, and the focus was on inventory preparation. Xinjiang spinning enterprises maintained a certain level of sales and high operation rates. The demand in the all-cotton grey fabric market decreased, and fabric mills were winding down. Spot market inquiries declined. In terms of varieties, the sales of regular C32S, C21S, and lower-grade yarn cards were weaker than before, and current prices remained stable [7]. Market Analysis - Macroeconomically, due to Trump's "yo-yo" remarks on the US dollar and signs that traders were watching for possible coordinated actions by the US and Japan to intervene in the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index hit a four-year low, and the commodity market was generally strong. Overseas, according to the US Department of Agriculture, as of the week ending January 23, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.9374 million tons, accounting for 96.9% of the estimated US cotton production for the year, 7% slower year-on-year (the estimated US cotton production for the 2025/26 season was 2.95 million tons). The overseas market rebounded from a low. In the domestic market, the expected decline in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang for the 2026/27 season had been partially factored in, and the reduction plan was to be gradually implemented over 3 - 5 years. On the demand side, orders for some medium and high-grade varieties were stable, while others were weak. Manufacturers in the yarn and fabric sectors were eager to collect payments, and most merchants expected enterprises to start taking holidays next week. Affected by macro factors, Zhengzhou cotton rebounded sharply with increased positions. Attention should be paid to the performance at the previous high resistance level [8]. Group 3: Industry News - According to the Brazilian National Supply Company (Conab), as of the week ending January 24, the cotton planting rate in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 60.6%, up from 36.3% the previous week, compared with 46.3% in the same period last year and a five-year average of 40.9% [9]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the yarn production of large-scale enterprises in December 2025 was 2.132 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. The cumulative yarn production from January to December was 22.158 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. The fabric production of large-scale enterprises in December 2025 was 3.01 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. The cumulative fabric production from January to December was 30.67 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, CF spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, warehouse receipt totals, and exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and Indian rupee, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [18][19][29]