建信期货生猪日报-20260129

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: January 29, 2026 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The spot market is expected to fluctuate weakly due to a short - term decrease in demand and relatively ample supply. The futures market for the 03/05 contracts is also expected to fluctuate weakly, with pig supply likely to increase slightly, high pressure from second - round fattening, weak epidemic impact, and the post - holiday entry into the consumption off - season [7] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestion - Futures Market: On the 28th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, then rose and fell back, closing down. The highest was 11340 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11230 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11270 yuan/ton, down 0.88% from the previous day. The total index position decreased by 1742 lots to 340530 lots [6] - Spot Market: On the 28th, the national average price of三元hogs was 12.67 yuan/kg, down 0.14 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] - Supply - side Situation: Before the middle of the month, the enthusiasm for second - round fattening increased. Currently, the utilization rate of second - round fattening pens is relatively high year - on - year, and there are still pigs to be slaughtered before the Spring Festival. In January, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises decreased by 3.1% month - on - month. The enthusiasm for slaughter on the breeding side increased, and the slaughter volume will be significantly released in the next two weeks [7] - Demand - side Situation: The spot price rebounded to a high level, and with the Spring Festival approaching, second - round fattening is on the sidelines. Terminal consumer demand is average. With schools about to have holidays, group - meal consumption may decrease, and the sales of pork carcasses are poor. Short - term orders for slaughtering enterprises have decreased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume have slightly decreased. The last wave of demand peak will be during the Spring Festival stocking period in early February. On January 28, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 188400 heads, an increase of 300 heads from the previous day, an increase of 10000 heads week - on - week, and a decrease of 14000 heads month - on - month [7] 2. Industry News - As of January 23, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - fattening was 12.15 yuan/kg, unchanged week - on - week. The cost of fattening purchased piglets was affected by both feed price and piglet price. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125kg and then selling was 12.63 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4 yuan/kg week - on - week [8][10] 3. Data Overview - Profit: As of January 23, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - fattening was 73 yuan/head, an increase of 47.7 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per head of fattening purchased piglets was - 38.7 yuan/head, a decrease of 61.8 yuan/head week - on - week [13] - Slaughter Weight: As of the week of January 22, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.89kg, an increase of 0.04kg from the previous week (a week - on - week increase of 0.03%), a decrease of 0.81kg from the previous month (a month - on - month decrease of 0.62%), and an increase of 7.38kg from the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 6.07%) [13] - Price Difference: In the week of January 22, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.64 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.16 yuan/jin week - on - week [13] - Fattening Cost: The cost of purchasing 110kg pigs and fattening them to 140kg was 12.41 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125kg pigs and fattening them to 150kg was 12.92 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous week [13] - Annual Output: In 2025, the total pig slaughter was 719.73 million heads, an increase of 17.16 million heads (a year - on - year increase of 2.4%). The pig slaughter in the four quarters was 194.76 million heads, 171.43 million heads, 163.73 million heads, and 189.81 million heads respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 0.1%, 1.2%, 4.7%, and 4.1% respectively. The pork output was 59.38 million tons, an increase of 2.32 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 4.1%), reaching a record high. The pork output in the four quarters was 16.02 million tons, 14.18 million tons, 13.48 million tons, and 15.7 million tons respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 1.2%, 1.4%, 7.1%, and 5.2% respectively [13]