贵金属期现日报-20260129

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The future market will be more affected by geopolitical situations. Pay attention to the Fed's decision early on Thursday. In the short - term, due to the combination of news and capital sentiment, the market will maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend. For gold, take profit on long positions when the price is high, and for single - side trading, buy at - the - money or slightly out - of - the - money call options instead of going long [1]. - For silver, the rising raw material cost may accelerate the replacement of silver with other metals by enterprises, suppressing industrial demand. However, new demand in fields such as AI is expected to support the bullish view on silver prices. Regulatory restrictions have cooled speculative sentiment, and ETF holdings have continued to decline. But due to capital fluctuations, silver prices may still experience sharp intraday declines and fluctuations. It is recommended to pay attention to risk - control measures of exchanges and maintain the idea of going long on dips [1]. - For platinum and palladium, supported by their macro - financial attributes and the tight supply pattern, their prices are linked to the rise of gold, and the price center continues to rise. However, the easing of the supply shortage in the London spot market may limit the upside space. The supply - demand factors boost the futures of palladium, with an expected high - opening and then a decline. It is advisable to go long at low prices [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2604 contract: The closing price on January 28 was 1186.20 yuan/gram, up 37.82 yuan or 3.29% from January 27 [1]. - AG2604 contract: The closing price on January 28 was 29219 yuan/kilogram, up 3.25% from January 27 [1]. - PT2606 contract: The closing price on January 28 was 694.80, down 10.90 or - 1.54% from January 27 [1]. - PD2606 contract: The closing price on January 28 was 504.00 yuan/gram, down 19.00 or - 3.63% from January 27 [1]. 3.2 Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力合约: The closing price on January 28 was 5411.00, up 231.40 or 4.47% from January 27 [1]. - COMEX silver主力合约: The closing price on January 28 was 116.62, up 4.28 or 3.81% from January 27 [1]. - NYMEX platinum主力合约: The closing price on January 28 was 2705.10 dollars/ounce, up 60.00 or 2.27% from January 27 [1]. - NYMEX palladium主力合约: The closing price on January 28 was 2095.50, up 145.00 or 7.43% from January 27 [1]. 3.3 Spot Prices - London gold: The current price was 5413.81, up 233.58 or 4.51% from the previous value [1]. - London silver: The current price was 116.61 dollars/ounce, up 4.70 or 4.20% from the previous value [1]. - Spot platinum: The current price was 2407.00, down 243.00 or - 9.17% from the previous value [1]. - Spot palladium: The current price was 2014.00, up 34.00 or 1.72% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D: The current price was 1184.04 yuan/gram, up 41.15 or 3.60% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T + D: The current price was 29310 yuan/kilogram, up 578 or 2.01% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995: The current price was 670 yuan/gram, down 15 or - 2.22% from the previous value [1]. 3.4 Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract: The current value was - 2.16, up 3.33 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1]. - Silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract: The current value was 91, down 341 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1]. - London gold - COMEX gold: The current value was 5.08, up 6.87 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 99.60% [1]. - London silver - COMEX silver: The current value was - 0.02, down 0.10 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 69.00% [1]. 3.5 Price Ratios - COMEX gold/silver: The current value was 46.40, up 0.29 or 0.64% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver: The current value was 40.60, up 0.02 or 0.04% from the previous value [1]. - NYMEX palladium/platinum: The current value was 1.29, down 0.07 or - 4.81% from the previous value [1]. - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium: The current value was 1.38, up 0.03 or 2.17% from the previous value [1]. 3.6 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield: The current value was 4.26%, up 0.02 or 0.5% from the previous day [1]. - 2 - year US Treasury yield: The current value was 3.56%, up 0.03 or 0.8% from the previous day [1]. - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield: The current value was 1.90%, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - US dollar index: The current value was 96.35, up 0.58 or 0.61% from the previous day [1]. - Offshore RMB exchange rate: The current value was 6.9434, up 0.0098 or 0.14% from the previous day [1]. 3.7 Inventory and Positions - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory: The current value was 103029, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory: The current value was 208368, down 35876 or - 6.59% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX gold inventory: The current value was 35877200, down 64302 or - 0.18% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX silver inventory: The current value was 411684635, down 3461662 or - 0.83% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX gold registered warrants: The current value was 18833072, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - COMEX silver registered warrants: The current value was 107674552, down 4734690 or - 4.21% from the previous value [1]. - SPDR gold ETF position: The current value was 1090, up 2.58 or 0.24% from the previous value [1]. - SLV silver ETF position: The current value was 15636, down 211.43 or - 1.33% from the previous value [1].