原木期货日报-20260129

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The spot market is strong, with prices rising in some specifications in Jiangsu due to low inventory. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and expected decrease in future shipments, but the upside is limited by weak demand. Recently, the valuation of log futures has been slightly repaired, and it is advisable to consider going long on dips in the range of 750 - 800 [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On January 28, the log 2601 contract was at 810, up 37.5 from the previous day with a gain of 4.85%. The log 2603 contract remained flat at 775.5. The log 2605 contract was at 784.5, down 2 with a decline of -0.25%, and the log 2607 contract was at 796, down 1 with a decline of -0.13%. The basis of the main contract remained unchanged at -35.5 [2] - Among spot prices, the price of 3.9A small radiata pine at Rizhao Port remained at 680, 3.9A medium radiata pine at 740, and 3.9A large radiata pine at 850. The price of 4A small radiata pine at Taicang Port increased from 700 to 720, a gain of 2.86%, while the prices of 4A medium and large radiata pines remained unchanged at 770 and 800 respectively. The price of spruce 11.8 at Rizhao Port remained at 1150 [2] - The CFR price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine remained at 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce remained at 124 euros per JAS cubic meter [2] Import Cost - On January 29, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.942, up 0.004 from the previous day with a 0% change. The import theoretical cost was 752.21 yuan, up 0.43 from the previous day with a 0% change [2] Supply - In December, the port shipping volume was 2040000 cubic meters, up 148000 cubic meters or 7.82% from November. The number of ships at the port was 55, up 6 or 12.24% from the previous period [2] Inventory - As of January 23, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 2.49 million cubic meters, a decrease of 80000 cubic meters or -3.11% from the previous week. In Shandong, the inventory was 1.888 million cubic meters, a decrease of 32000 cubic meters or -1.67%. In Jiangsu, the inventory was 329700 cubic meters, a decrease of 81000 cubic meters or -19.75% [2][3] Demand - As of January 23, the daily average log出库 volume was 61800 cubic meters, an increase of 200 cubic meters or 0% from the previous week. In Shandong, it increased from 0.37 to 3.61 million cubic meters, a gain of 11%. In Jiangsu, it decreased from 2.28 to 1.94 million cubic meters, a decline of -15% [3] Forecast of Arrival - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, the number of pre - arrival New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports is 7, a decrease of 1 or -13% from the previous week. The total arrival volume is about 219000 cubic meters, a decrease of 27000 cubic meters or -11% from the previous week [3]