《有色》日报-20260129

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views Tin - Short - term price fluctuates greatly due to market sentiment, suggesting cautious operation. - Medium - to long - term, maintain a low - buying strategy for tin prices considering supply - side low elasticity and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race [2]. Nickel - Short - term, the impact of supply - side disturbances is gradually digested. Before the results are clear, sentiment provides support but the unilateral driving force weakens. The disk is expected to oscillate strongly in a range, with the main contract referring to 140,000 - 150,000 [3]. Stainless Steel - Recently, cost support is strengthened. The social inventory shows a trend of de - stocking. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract referring to 14,000 - 15,000. Attention should be paid to news from the ore end and the improvement in demand [6]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the disk may adjust. It is expected that the price will remain in a relatively strong range. The main contract refers to 160,000 - 175,000. Prudent operation is recommended, paying attention to over - valuation and liquidity risks [9]. Industrial Silicon - Maintain the expectation of price oscillation. The main price fluctuation range may be between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in industrial silicon production and demand - side output [11]. Polysilicon - In February, polysilicon production is expected to decrease. In the weak demand background, pay attention to the production reduction process and price quotation changes of enterprises. During the cooling period, it is recommended to wait and see [12]. Copper - In the short term, the price may gradually return to fundamental pricing. Pay attention to changes in CL premium and LME inventory. The main contract focuses on the support at 99,000 - 100,000 [13][14]. Zinc - The downside space of the short - term price may be limited. Pay attention to changes in zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory. The main contract focuses on the support around 24,000 [16]. Alumina - The price is expected to continue to oscillate widely around the industry cash cost line, with the main contract referring to the range of 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [18]. Aluminum - In the long - term, the price is expected to remain in a relatively strong pattern of being easy to rise and difficult to fall. In the short - term, there is a risk of high - level correction. Mid - to long - term, the core strategy is to buy on dips [18]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to continue the high - level range oscillation pattern in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 22,500 - 24,500 yuan/ton [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - Price and Basis: SMM 1 tin price increased by 1.91% to 436,600 yuan/ton; import loss widened by 88.73% to - 10,909.52 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: In December, tin ore imports increased by 16.81% to 17,637 tons; refined tin exports increased by 41.84% to 2,763 tons [2]. - Supply and Demand: Supply increased in December. Demand from solder enterprises was under pressure, with large enterprises having relatively stable orders and small and medium - sized enterprises facing more significant order reduction [2]. Nickel - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 1.35% to 146,100 yuan/ton; futures import profit increased by 204.00% to 338 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: China's refined nickel production in January increased by 26.10% to 31,400 tons; SHFE inventory increased by 5.43% to 50,794 tons [3]. - Supply and Demand: Supply increased, while demand from the stainless steel end was weak during the off - season, and demand from the ternary material end increased [3]. Stainless Steel - Price and Basis: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price remained unchanged at 14,500 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 57.69% to 205 yuan/ton [6]. - Fundamentals: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in January increased by 0.92% to 176.32 million tons; stainless steel net exports increased by 15.96% to 34.00 million tons [6]. - Supply and Demand: Supply decreased due to pre - holiday production cuts by steel mills, and demand was weak [6]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.29% to 172,000 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 180.56% to 5,720 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamentals: In December, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.04% to 99,200 tons; total inventory decreased by 12.23% to 56,664 tons [9]. - Supply and Demand: Supply is expected to decline in January due to pre - holiday maintenance by salt plants, while demand maintains a certain resilience [9]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Basis: The main contract of industrial silicon decreased by 1.13% to 8,760 yuan/ton; the basis of East China SI4210 industrial silicon increased by 1000.00% to 90 yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamentals: In January, national industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15% to 39.71 million tons; social inventory increased by 0.18% to 55.60 million tons [11]. - Supply and Demand: Both supply and demand weakened slightly in January, with a slight inventory build - up [11]. Polysilicon - Price and Basis: The main contract of polysilicon decreased by 2.11% to 50,805 yuan/ton; the basis widened [12]. - Fundamentals: In January, polysilicon production increased by 0.79% to 11.55 million tons; silicon wafer production decreased by 19.26% to 43.90 GM [12]. - Supply and Demand: Demand improved slightly due to export rush, but silicon wafers and silicon materials were still under pressure. Production cuts are expected to increase in February [12]. Copper - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.29% to 101,660 yuan/ton; the import loss decreased by 226.15 yuan/ton [13]. - Fundamentals: In December, electrolytic copper production increased by 6.80% to 117.81 million tons; domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 4.08% to 71.86 million tons [13]. - Supply and Demand: Global visible inventory has reached a high level in recent years. Domestic downstream开工率 has recovered, but the spot market remains in a discount structure [13][14]. Zinc - Price and Basis: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 1.94% to 25,240 yuan/ton; import loss decreased by 80.16 yuan/ton [16]. - Fundamentals: In December, refined zinc production decreased by 7.24% to 55.21 million tons; Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 4.26% to 11.68 million tons [16]. - Supply and Demand: Supply pressure eased, demand from the processing industry recovered significantly after the zinc price correction, and inventory had room for replenishment [16]. Alumina - Price and Basis: Alumina futures were strong, but the spot market was pressured by high inventory [18]. - Fundamentals: Industry开工率 decreased slightly, and the market - wide inventory decreased by about 34,000 tons this week [18]. - Supply and Demand: Supply decreased due to enterprise maintenance, but the implicit inventory was still large, and demand did not improve fundamentally [18]. Aluminum - Price and Basis: The main contract of aluminum reached a record high of 25,680 yuan/ton [18]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased steadily, and the inventory inflection point had appeared and entered the accumulation cycle [18]. - Supply and Demand: Strong expectations clashed with weak reality, with supply increasing and demand being suppressed by high prices [18]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Price and Basis: The AD - AL spread widened to a record extreme of - 1,700 yuan/ton [19]. - Fundamentals: The industry开工率 remained at a low level of about 58%, and social inventory decreased slightly to about 47,500 tons [19]. - Supply and Demand: Supply was under pressure, and demand was weak, with a pattern of high prices but few transactions [19].