铂钯金期货日报-20260129

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm in the medium and long term. The uncertainty of power supply in South Africa and exports from Russia, combined with the implementation of new automobile emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium. The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend. The London platinum should pay attention to the upper resistance level of $2800 per ounce and the lower support level of $2600 per ounce; the London palladium should pay attention to the upper resistance level of $2100 per ounce and the lower support level of $1900 per ounce [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract is 714.10 yuan/gram (up 13.60), and the closing price of the palladium main contract is 526.60 yuan/gram (up 15.10). The main contract position of platinum is 10387.00 hands (down 277.00), and the main contract position of palladium is 3179.00 hands (up 90.00) [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 703.90 yuan/gram (up 33.45), and the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium is 502.00 yuan/gram (up 42.00). The basis of the platinum main contract is - 10.20 yuan/gram (up 19.85), and the basis of the palladium main contract is - 24.60 yuan/gram (up 26.90) [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC (weekly, contracts) are 9966.00 (down 243.00), and those of palladium are 3003.00 (down 342.00). The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons (down 0.80), and the total supply of palladium is expected to be 293.00 tons (down 5.00). The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons (up 25.60), and the total demand for palladium is expected to be 287.00 tons (down 27.00) [2] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 96.35 (up 0.59), the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.90% (unchanged), and the VIX volatility index is 16.35 (up 0.20) [2] 3.5 Industry News - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point cuts, in line with market expectations. Fed Chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point cut, consistent with Trump - nominated director Milan. The Fed pointed out that the unemployment rate has shown initial signs of stabilization, inflation remains relatively high, and economic prospects are still highly uncertain. Fed Chair Powell said that raising interest rates is not anyone's basic assumption for the next move, and he doesn't believe the Fed will lose its independence and will advise the next Fed Chair to stay away from politics. - US President Trump threatened Iran again, saying the next attack on Iran will be more severe and a large fleet is heading to Iran. - The minutes of the Bank of Japan's meeting showed that if the outlook meets expectations, it is advisable to continue raising interest rates. Members agreed that even if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates at this meeting, the monetary policy environment will remain loose. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by March is 13.5%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 86.5%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in total by April is 24.1%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 74%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in total is 2.0% [2] 3.6 Market Analysis - Boosted by the overall optimistic sentiment in the precious metals market, the London platinum and palladium markets strengthened with fluctuations. At the macro level, the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged as expected, and there is still an expectation of gradually restarting interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. The continuous strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar has increased the holding cost of RMB - denominated platinum and palladium, resulting in the recent overall increase of domestic platinum and palladium prices being weaker than that of the external market. The EU officially postponed the 2035 internal combustion engine ban at the end of last year and simultaneously strengthened automobile exhaust emission standards, bringing higher platinum loading intensity. The substitution demand for platinum in automobile catalysts is expected to increase by about 450,000 ounces this year. Although the global passenger car sales volume is moderately adjusted downward due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - and long - term demand curve for platinum. The latest hydrogen energy outlook from the IEA also confirms that the cumulative installed capacity of PEM electrolyzers is expected to exceed 17GW by 2030, providing potential elasticity for the platinum price [2] 3.7 Key Points to Watch - On January 29th, 21:30, the US November trade balance (imports and exports); on January 30th, 21:30, the US PPI year - on - year (%) [2]