瑞达期货贵金属期货日报-20260129

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View - The precious metals market continued to experience an accelerating upward trend, with gold prices hitting new all - time highs. The Fed maintained the interest rate as expected at the FOMC meeting. The market may price in a more hawkish Fed stance. Under the assumption of stable inflation and employment data, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times in the second half of the year. The overall bullish logic for precious metals remains intact in the medium - to - long - term, and investors should consider buying on dips, while being cautious of short - term corrections. The London gold is expected to face resistance at $5500 per ounce and find support at $5000 per ounce, and London silver at $120 per ounce and $100 per ounce respectively [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 1249.120 yuan/gram, up 62.9 yuan; the Shanghai silver main contract was 30891 yuan/kilogram, up 1672 yuan [2]. - Positions: The main contract positions of Shanghai gold decreased by 10653 hands to 211,820 hands, and those of Shanghai silver decreased by 4376 hands to 13,190 hands [2]. - Volumes: The trading volume of the Shanghai gold main contract increased by 90641 to 521,258 hands, while that of Shanghai silver decreased by 325925 to 759,570 hands [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold remained unchanged at 103029 kilograms, and that of Shanghai silver decreased by 26360 kilograms to 482,008 kilograms [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Spot Prices: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1243.02 yuan, up 58.06 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 30,094 yuan, up 1105 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 6.10 yuan/gram, down 4.86 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 797 yuan/gram, down 567 yuan [2]. - ETF Holdings: The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 2.58 tons to 1089.96 tons, and the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 211.42 tons to 15,636.12 tons [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions: The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC decreased by 6468 to 244770 contracts, and those of silver decreased by 6846 to 25,214 contracts [2]. - Supply: The total quarterly supply of gold increased by 86.24 tons to 1313.07 tons, and the total annual supply of silver increased by 482 tons to 32,056 tons [2]. - Demand: The total quarterly demand for gold increased by 174.15 tons to 1257.90 tons, and the total annual demand for silver decreased by 491 tons to 35,716 tons [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - Dollar Index: The dollar index was 96.35, up 0.59 [2]. - Yield and Volatility: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.90%, unchanged; the VIX volatility index was 16.35, unchanged; the CBOE gold volatility index was 39.67, up 6.54 [2]. - Ratios: The S&P 500/gold price ratio was 1.31, down 0.06; the gold - silver ratio was 47.05, up 1.66 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Fed Policy: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point cuts. Fed Chair candidate Waller supported a 25 - basis - point cut. The Fed noted that the unemployment rate showed initial signs of stabilization, inflation remained relatively high, and economic uncertainty was still high. Fed Chair Powell said that raising interest rates was not the basic assumption for the next move, and he believed the Fed would maintain its independence [2]. - Geopolitical Tensions: US President Trump threatened Iran again, saying the next strike would be more intense and a large fleet was heading to Iran [2]. - BOJ Policy: The Bank of Japan's meeting minutes showed that if the outlook met expectations, it was advisable to continue raising interest rates, and the monetary policy environment would remain loose even after a rate hike [2]. - Rate Cut Probability: According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in March was 13.5%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 86.5%. By April, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cumulative cut was 24.1%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 74%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cumulative cut was 2.0% [2].