芳烃橡胶早报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, although it has turned to weekly inventory accumulation, the processing fee has further improved due to good expectations for the far - month and slow actual load - increase. However, the downstream polyester cash - flow has deteriorated again, and the overall valuation is not low. The downward drive depends on the load - increase of mainstream suppliers' existing devices, and there is uncertainty without new production, so the safety margin for shorting is not high [1]. - For MEG, the short - term inventory accumulation continues, but the far - month inventory reduction amplitude increases. The valuation has a certain repair demand, but the elasticity is still limited during the production cycle, so it is regarded as a sideways trend [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the downstream seasonality is expected to continue to weaken. With limited inventory pressure, the operation rate remains high. It is in a medium - low valuation with weak driving force and limited overall contradictions, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - Device Changes: Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton device and Ineos' 1.25 million - ton device are under maintenance. The near - end TA device operates stably, the start - up rate remains the same month - on - month, the polyester load continues to decline, the inventory continues to accumulate, the basis weakens slightly, and the spot processing fee increases. PX has domestic maintenance and load reduction, while the overseas load continues to increase, the PXN spreads month - on - month, the disproportionation benefit improves, and the isomerization benefit remains high. The US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon spread is weak [1]. - Weekly View: Although TA has turned to inventory accumulation, the processing fee improves further due to far - month expectations and slow actual load - increase. The downstream polyester cash - flow deteriorates again, and the overall valuation is not low. The downward drive depends on the load - increase of mainstream suppliers' existing devices, and there is uncertainty without new production, so the safety margin for shorting is not high [1]. MEG - Device Changes: Sinochem Quanzhou's 500,000 - ton device restarts. Near - end domestic oil - based devices are under maintenance, coal - based devices operate stably, the start - up rate declines slightly, the port inventory decreases slightly at the beginning of next week due to lower arrivals, the forecast of arrivals during the week remains high, and the far - month device conversion plan is released, the basis strengthens month - on - month, and the coal - based benefit improves [1]. - Weekly View: Affected by the price ratio, the satellite device conversion plan is released. The short - term inventory accumulation continues, but the far - month inventory reduction amplitude increases. The valuation has a certain repair demand, but the elasticity is still limited during the production cycle, so it is regarded as a sideways trend [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Device Changes: Near - end Hengyi High - tech increases the load, the start - up rate increases slightly to 97.8%, the production and sales improve month - on - month, the inventory decreases, and the spot processing fee weakens month - on - month. On the demand side, the start - up rate of the polyester yarn end declines, the raw material inventory increases, the finished product inventory decreases, and the benefit weakens month - on - month [1]. - This Week's View: The downstream seasonality of staple fiber is expected to continue to weaken. With limited inventory pressure, the operation rate remains high. It is in a medium - low valuation with weak driving force and limited overall contradictions, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [1]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - Price Changes: The daily and weekly price changes of various rubber products such as US - dollar Thai standard rubber, US - dollar Thai mixed rubber, etc. are presented. For example, the weekly change of US - dollar Thai standard rubber is 45, and the weekly change of Shanghai full - latex is 380 [1]. - Today's View: No specific view is clearly stated in the text other than presenting price data and some spread data. Styrene - Price Changes: The prices of styrene and related products such as ethylene, pure benzene, etc. change daily. For example, on January 29, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of pure benzene (East China) increases by 125, and the price of styrene (Jiangsu) increases by 135 [1]. - Profit Changes: The production profits of ABS, EPS, PS, etc. also change. For example, the daily change of ABS domestic profit on January 29, 2026, is 100 [1].