《有色》日报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - Tin: Short - term prices are volatile due to market sentiment, and caution is advised. In the medium - to - long - term, maintain a low - buying strategy for tin prices considering supply - side low elasticity and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race [2]. - Copper: In the short - term, pay attention to the CL premium trend. In the medium - to - long - term, the price bottom center is expected to rise gradually, but be aware of price volatility risks [3]. - Zinc: The price has support from the tight domestic zinc ore supply, and there is room for restocking as demand recovers. The short - term price downside is limited, and focus on changes in zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory [5]. - Industrial Silicon: Expect the price to fluctuate, and pay attention to the decline in industrial silicon production and the production reduction process of enterprises. The price range is expected to be between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton [7]. - Polysilicon: In February, there is still pressure to reduce production. The price is under pressure and may be supported at 48000 yuan/ton and 45000 yuan/ton. Temporarily wait and see, and focus on the production reduction situation and downstream demand recovery [8]. - Aluminum Oxide: The futures price is driven by sentiment, but the high inventory in the spot market suppresses the price. It is expected to fluctuate widely around the cash cost line [9]. - Aluminum: In the long - term, the price is likely to be strong, but in the short - term, there is a risk of a high - level correction. Long - term investors can buy on dips [9]. - Aluminum Alloy: The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Focus on the actual flow of scrap aluminum, import window changes, and downstream pre - holiday inventory preparation [11]. - Nickel: The short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The main reference range is 145000 - 155000 yuan/ton [12]. - Stainless Steel: In the short - term, it is expected to adjust with a strong - side fluctuation. The main reference range is 14200 - 15200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the news from the ore end and steel mill dynamics [14]. - Lithium Carbonate: The short - term price may decline and adjust. The main reference range is 155000 - 170000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the production reduction and inventory changes [17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price and Basis - Tin: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.46% to 438600 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin open - discount decreased by 100% to 0 yuan/ton [2]. - Copper: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 2.48% to 104185 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 70 yuan/ton [3]. - Zinc: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.20% to 25290 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 2443 yuan/ton [5]. - Industrial Silicon: The spot price of industrial silicon was stable, and the futures price increased by 165 yuan/ton [7]. - Polysilicon: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, and the N - type silicon wafer price decreased [8]. - Aluminum: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 2.47% to 24860 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 2081 yuan/ton [9]. - Aluminum Alloy: The price of SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy increased, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum widened [11]. - Nickel: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.30% to 148000 yuan/ton, and the futures import loss was - 266 yuan/ton [12]. - Stainless Steel: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils was basically stable, and the price difference between futures and spot decreased [14]. - Lithium Carbonate: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 2.33% to 168000 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - Tin: In December, tin ore imports increased by 16.81%, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 0.06% [2]. - Copper: In December, electrolytic copper production increased by 6.80%, and imports decreased by 4.02% [3]. - Zinc: In December, refined zinc production decreased by 7.24%, and the galvanizing start - up rate decreased [5]. - Industrial Silicon: In January, the supply and demand of industrial silicon both weakened slightly, and there was a slight inventory build - up [7]. - Polysilicon: In December, polysilicon production increased by 0.79%, and the import volume increased by 77.50% [8]. - Aluminum: In December, alumina production increased by 1.08%, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97% [9]. - Aluminum Alloy: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.46% [11]. - Nickel: In December, China's refined nickel production increased by 26.10%, and imports increased by 84.63% [12]. - Stainless Steel: In December, the production of 300 - series stainless steel rough steel decreased by 26.72%, and imports increased by 29.32% [14]. - Lithium Carbonate: In December, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.04%, and the demand decreased by 2.50% [17]. 3.3 Inventory Changes - Tin: SHEF inventory increased by 1.79%, and social inventory increased by 4.94% [2]. - Copper: Global visible inventory has accumulated to a high level in recent years, with more than 50% of the inventory in the United States [3]. - Zinc: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 1.35%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.57% [5]. - Industrial Silicon: Social inventory decreased by 0.36%, and warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2.89% [7]. - Polysilicon: Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.91% to 33.30 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.90% to 27.29GW [8]. - Aluminum: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 5.25%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.45% [9]. - Aluminum Alloy: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.11% [11]. - Nickel: SHFE inventory increased by 5.43%, and social inventory increased by 4.38% [12]. - Stainless Steel: The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased by 0.82%, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 9.90% [14]. - Lithium Carbonate: The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 12.23% in December, and the downstream inventory decreased by 7.21% [17].