Report Summary of Steel Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View - Steel prices are expected to move up due to macro - sentiment, with attention on the pressure levels of 3200 for rebar and 3350 for hot - rolled coils. If prices break through the upper edge of the shock range, long positions can be attempted [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts all showed an upward trend. For example, rebar spot in the East China region increased from 3240 to 3260 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices increased by 20 to 2950 yuan/ton, while plate billet prices remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. Profits of different products and regions showed different trends, with some decreasing, such as East China hot - rolled coil profit decreasing by 26 to 7 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 228.0, with a decline rate of 0.0%. The output of five major steel products increased by 3.6 to 823.2, with a growth rate of 0.4%. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils also increased slightly [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 21.4 to 1278.5, with a growth rate of 1.7%. The rebar inventory increased significantly by 23.4 to 475.5, with a growth rate of 5.2%, while the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased slightly by 2.2 to 355.6, with a decline rate of - 0.6% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.7 to 73, with a growth rate of 11.1%. However, the apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 7.8 to 801.7, with a decline rate of - 1.0%. The apparent consumption of rebar decreased by 9.1 to 176.4, with a decline rate of - 4.9%, and the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils increased slightly by 1.5 to 311.4, with a growth rate of 0.5% [1]. Report Summary of Iron Ore Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View - Before the Spring Festival, iron ore prices are generally under pressure due to stagnant pig iron production recovery, the fulfillment of steel mill restocking, and high inventory. Short - selling can be attempted around 800, but beware of the disturbance of macro and market sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, with an increase rate of about 1.2% - 1.3%. The basis of the 05 contract for various iron ore powders decreased, with a decline rate of about 4.7% - 8.9% [3]. Supply - The weekly global shipment volume increased by 48.4 to 2978.3, with a growth rate of 1.7%, but the shipment center decreased marginally. The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 129.7 to 2530.0, with a decline rate of - 4.9% [3]. Demand - The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 228.1, with a growth rate of 0.0%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 9.2 to 310.7, with a decline rate of - 2.9% [3]. Inventory Change - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 211.4 to 16766.53, with a growth rate of 1.3%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 126.6 to 9388.8, with a growth rate of 1.4%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 4.0 to 27.0, with a growth rate of 17.4% [3]. Report Summary of Coke and Coking Coal Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View Coke - The coke market outlook has improved. Unilaterally, it is expected to be oscillating and bullish, with a reference range of 1650 - 1850. The recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - Unilaterally, it is expected to be oscillating and bullish, with a reference range of 1050 - 1250. The recommended arbitrage strategy is also to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Spread - The coke 05 contract increased by 39 to 1723 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.3%. The coking coal 05 contract increased by 31 to 1165 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.7% [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5 to 62.8, with a decline rate of - 0.7%. The coal output of sample coal mines showed different trends [6]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 228.0, with a decline rate of - 0.1% [6]. Inventory Change - The total coke inventory increased by 21.5 to 960.6, with a growth rate of 2.3%. The coking coal inventory of various sectors also showed different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [6]. Report Summary of Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View Ferrosilicon - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is limited, the fundamentals are relatively stable, and the cost side also has support. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with a reference range of around 5500 - 5900 [7]. Ferromanganese - Ferromanganese is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak. The high inventory still suppresses the price in the short term, and the fundamentals lack driving force. It is expected that the ferromanganese price will fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 5800 - 6000 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Spread - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increased by 104 to 5736.0 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increased by 94 to 5926.0 yuan/ton [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of different regions for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese remained relatively stable, and the production profits showed different trends [7]. Supply - The weekly output of ferrosilicon increased slightly by 0.1 to 9.8, with a growth rate of 0.1%. The weekly output of ferromanganese remained basically unchanged [7]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese from the steel - making industry is expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival, and the non - steel demand for ferrosilicon is affected by multiple factors [7]. Inventory Change - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises increased by 0.1 to 6.8, with a growth rate of 1.0%. The inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises remained basically unchanged [7].
《黑色》日报-20260130
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2026-01-30 01:26