贵金属日评-20260130

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: January 30, 2026 - Industry: Precious Metals - Research Team: Macro Finance Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [1][2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly under the influence of factors such as the restructuring of the international political and economic landscape, the Fed's loose monetary policy, and the improvement of the global economic growth outlook. However, the large influx of speculative funds also increases the price volatility of precious metals. - The performance ranking of precious metals in 2026 is expected to be silver > platinum > palladium > gold > 10%. - Investors are advised to maintain a bullish stance in precious metals trading, with medium- and long-term investors gradually building up positions, mainly in gold with a small amount of silver, platinum, and palladium. Conservative investors can consider arbitrage opportunities by going long on silver and platinum and short on gold. - Long hedgers should gradually establish hedging positions, while short hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. [4][5] Group 4: Intraday Market Analysis - The Fed's decision to pause rate cuts met market expectations. Geopolitical risks have increased significantly due to the US sending more fleets to the Middle East and threatening Iran, and Iran's warning to the US. This has boosted the safe-haven demand for precious metals, with the London gold price approaching $5,600 per ounce during the Asian session on the 29th. - The correction at the end of December 2025 has fully released the internal adjustment risks of precious metals. - This week, attention should be paid to the Iranian situation, the Fed's interest rate meeting, and China's January PMI. [4] Group 5: Domestic Precious Metals Market Data | Contract | Pre - closing Price | High | Low | Closing Price | Change % | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Index | 1,187.81 | 1,260.13 | 1,182.65 | 1,250.65 | 5.29% | 357,562 | -14,377 | | SHFE Silver Index | 29,164 | 30,907 | 28,614 | 30,452 | 4.42% | 691,250 | -14,772 | | GZFE Platinum Index | 694.70 | 732.78 | 697.47 | 712.99 | 2.63% | 36,363 | 582 | | GZFE Palladium Index | 504.39 | 544.22 | 511.48 | 526.01 | 4.29% | 13,133 | -937 | [5] Group 6: Medium - term Market Analysis - Due to Trump 2.0's policy shift towards the military and the pressure of the mid - term elections, the Trump administration continues to push the Fed for a loose monetary policy. Both the Fed and the ECB have ended the balance sheet reduction process and started expanding their balance sheets. The US dollar index will continue to be weak. - Geopolitical risks, the safe - haven demand from the US mid - term elections, the liquidity premium from the global central banks' coordinated easing, and the weak US dollar will drive the London gold price to the range of $5,500 - $6,000 per ounce in 2026. - Strong industrial demand, tight spot supply and demand, and the substitution of silver jewelry for gold jewelry will make silver outperform gold. The gold - silver ratio is expected to fall to 40 - 45 in 2026, and the target price for London silver is $120 - $150 per ounce. [5] Group 7: Main Macro Events/Data - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, with Chairman Powell stating that the economic growth outlook has significantly improved, and the risks of inflation and employment have decreased, indicating no urgency to further cut borrowing costs. The Fed decided to maintain the target interest rate range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a vote of 10 in favor and 2 against. - US Treasury Secretary Besent expressed disappointment with Europe's decision to reach a major trade agreement with India, saying that Europe prioritizes trade over the interests of the Ukrainian people. - ECB policymakers are increasingly concerned about the rapid appreciation of the euro against the US dollar, warning that it may lower inflation. The ECB is closely monitoring the situation and will adjust monetary policy accordingly. - US President Trump urged Iran to return to the negotiation table on Wednesday, threatening a more severe attack if an agreement on nuclear weapons is not reached. Russia, Ukraine, and the US will resume negotiations on a solution to the Ukraine war in Abu Dhabi on February 1st. [17][18]