集运早报-20260130

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Due to recent geopolitical tensions, Maersk's stable February quotes, and potential cargo - rush and price - support stories in March, the market is likely to remain stable in the short - term. The current valuation is moderately high, and the upward potential depends on capital behavior. It's recommended to look for short - selling opportunities, focusing on the more certain far - month contract 2610 affected by the off - season and policies. Be cautious with the 2604 contract unless there is significant premium. The export tax rebate adjustment policy is negative for contracts after April. For the 06 and 08 contracts, their valuations are hard to anchor, currently within a reasonable range and highly affected by geopolitics, so operate with caution [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Information - Contract Price and Volume: The EC2602 contract closed at 1717.5 with a - 0.09% change, volume of 432, and a decrease of 374 in open interest. The EC2604 contract closed at 1249.7 with a 1.68% increase, volume of 27481, and a decrease of 477 in open interest. The EC2606 contract closed at 1576.0 with a 5.55% increase, volume of 1532, and an increase of 1704 in open interest. The EC2608 contract closed at 1645.4 with a 5.42% increase, volume of 1154, and an increase of 117 in open interest. The EC2610 contract closed at 1151.2 with a 1.42% increase, volume of 2032, and an increase of 211 in open interest [2] - Month - spread: The EC2502 - 2604 month - spread was 467.8, with a day - on - day decrease of 22.2 and a week - on - week decrease of 111.6. The EC2504 - 2606 month - spread was - 326.3, with a day - on - day decrease of 62.1 and a week - on - week decrease of 51.7 [2] - Spot Indicators: The spot (European route) indicator "ટરનાટ" on January 26, 2026, was 1859.31 points, a - 4.86% change from the previous period. The SCFI (European route) on January 23, 2026, was 1595 dollars/TEU, a - 4.83% change from the previous period [2] European Route Spot Situation - In Week 5, MSK opened at 2450 ( - 300 compared to the previous period), PA at 2400 (special price 2200), OA at 2500 - 2700 dollars, with a central price of 2500 dollars, equivalent to 1750 points on the futures market. In Week 6, MSK opened at 2050 ( - 400 compared to the previous period), PA around 2200, MSC at 2340, OA at 2300 - 2400 dollars, with a central price of 2300 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the futures market. On Tuesday, MSK opened at 1950 for February Week 7 - 9 ( - 100 compared to the previous period), lower than market expectations [4] Related News - On January 30, Hamas announced that the handover of governance in the Gaza Strip was fully ready. US President Trump said that Hamas seemed to be about to disarm and that a team was going to Iran [5]