《能源化工》日报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - Polyolefin prices are strong due to capital rotation to the chemical sector and geopolitical tensions. The static fundamentals show a decline in both supply and demand, and inventory is being depleted. The upstream inventory is low, and producers are reluctant to lower prices. However, agents are selling at a loss, the basis has weakened significantly, and hedgers have no risk - free positions. For PP, the supply pressure is relieved due to many maintenance activities, and the PDH profit is still low, with a strong drive for production cuts. For PE, the pressure on standard products increases as India switches to LLD production, and the downstream demand enters the off - season, leading to a decline in downstream operating rates [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand situation of pure benzene has marginally improved, but the port inventory has increased unexpectedly, and the absolute level is still high. It is driven by oil prices and downstream styrene. With the increase in pure benzene and PX prices, the disproportionation profit has improved, and some units are expected to restart. The import of pure benzene is expected to increase. Overall, the supply - demand outlook is positive, but the driving force is limited, and it follows the fluctuations of raw materials and downstream styrene. For styrene, the short - term trend is strong due to limited market supply, strong oil prices, and capital inflows. However, the supply - demand outlook is weakening, and the port inventory has increased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see and shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [2]. Methanol - Methanol prices are rising, and the basis is weakening. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The inland area maintains high production, and the inventory is slightly depleted. The port inventory is slightly decreasing, but the MTO demand is weak, which suppresses the price rebound. The key variables are the reduction rhythm of imported methanol from Iran and the risk premium caused by geopolitical factors [4]. LPG - The LPG price is rising. The refinery storage ratio has increased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The upstream operating rate has increased, while the downstream PDH operating rate has decreased significantly [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda futures are oscillating weakly. The supply - demand imbalance persists, with high operating loads and high inventory. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the procurement volume of major downstream industries and the price fluctuations of liquid caustic soda. The PVC futures are oscillating weakly. The supply - demand situation has not improved, with high production and weak demand. The price is suppressed by the weak supply - demand situation but supported by costs. It is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 4820 - 5000 [8]. Urea - The urea futures are strengthening, and the spot price is firm. The supply is sufficient, and the industrial demand is general, while the agricultural demand is warming up. The pre - holiday order receiving is expected to be smooth. It is expected that the urea market will fluctuate slightly before the Spring Festival, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 1760 - 1820 [9]. Natural Rubber - The supply of natural rubber is shrinking, and the cost support is strengthening. The demand is weakening as some enterprises are arranging holidays. The inventory in Qingdao is decreasing. The rubber price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and long positions should be held [10]. Glass and Soda Ash - The soda ash futures are oscillating widely. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The inventory in the factory has increased slightly, and the social inventory has decreased. The price is mainly driven by market sentiment. The glass futures are also oscillating widely. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is supported by the cancellation of the "Three Red Lines" policy in the real estate market but is still affected by weak demand [13]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply - demand situation in the first quarter is weaker than expected, but the price has strong support in the second quarter. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. For PTA, the supply - demand situation is weakening, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. For short - fiber, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to follow the raw materials. For polyester bottle - chips, the supply is expected to decrease, and the price and processing fee are expected to follow the cost [14]. Crude Oil - International oil prices are rising. Geopolitical factors, such as the tense situation in Iran and the US military deployment, and other factors like the US winter storm and the slow recovery of the Kazakh oil field, support the oil price in the short term. However, the overall supply - demand situation is weak, and there is pressure above $70 per barrel for Brent crude [15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefins - Futures Prices: L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 all increased on January 29 compared to January 28, with increases of 1.18%, 1.27%, 1.36%, and 1.29% respectively [1]. - Price Spreads: The L59 spread decreased by 14.58%, the PP59 spread increased by 11.11%, and the LP05 spread decreased by 5.29% [1]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices of East China PP拉丝 and North China LDPE increased by 1.36% and 1.03% respectively [1]. - Operating Rates: The PE device operating rate increased by 0.81%, while the PE downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 4.48%. The PP device operating rate decreased by 1.64%, and the PP powder operating rate decreased by 2.65% [1]. - Inventory: The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 3.58%, and the PE social inventory decreased by 1.42%. The PP enterprise inventory increased by 0.44%, and the PP trader inventory increased by 0.77% [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Upstream Prices: Brent crude oil (March) increased by 3.4%, WTI crude oil (March) increased by 3.5%, and CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.9% [2]. - Benzene - Related Prices: The pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 3.9%, and the ethylene - naphtha spread decreased by 9.6% [2]. - Styrene - Related Prices: The styrene East China spot price increased by 1.0%, and the EB03 - EB04 spread decreased by 24.3% [2]. - Downstream Cash Flows: The cash flows of phenol, caprolactam, aniline, EPS, PS, and ABS all changed to varying degrees [2]. - Inventory: The pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 2.7%, and the styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 7.6% [2]. - Operating Rates: The Asian pure benzene operating rate remained unchanged, while the domestic pure benzene, hydrogenated benzene, and styrene operating rates decreased [2]. Methanol - Futures Prices: MA2605 and MA2609 increased by 0.56% and 0.68% respectively [4]. - Price Spreads: The MA59 spread decreased by 14.29%, and the MTO05盘面 increased by 14.57% [4]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan Luoyang, and Port Taicang changed slightly [4]. - Inventory: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.12%, the methanol port inventory increased by 1.00%, and the methanol social inventory increased by 0.05% [4]. - Operating Rates: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.19%, and the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate increased by 2.30%. The downstream MTO device operating rate decreased by 0.35%, and the downstream formaldehyde operating rate decreased by 1.13% [4]. LPG - Futures Prices: PG2603, PG2604, and PG2605 increased by 1.45%, 1.51%, and 1.61% respectively [6]. - Price Spreads: The PG03 - 04 spread decreased by 2.50%, and the PG03 - 05 spread decreased by 5.68% [6]. - Spot Prices: The South China spot (civil gas) and deliverable spot prices remained unchanged [6]. - Inventory: The LPG refinery storage ratio increased by 5.23%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 1.53% [6]. - Operating Rates: The upstream main refinery operating rate increased by 1.99%, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased by 14.81% [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Futures and Spot Prices: The prices of caustic soda and PVC futures and spot prices changed slightly on January 29 compared to January 28 [8]. - Export Profits: The caustic soda export profit increased by 0.6%, and the PVC export profit decreased by 577.7% [8]. - Operating Rates: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.9%, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 1.4% [8]. - Inventory: The liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory increased by 5.5%, and the PVC total social inventory increased by 2.7% [8]. Urea - Futures Prices: The urea futures prices increased on January 29 [9]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices of urea in different regions increased slightly [9]. - Supply and Demand: The domestic urea daily production increased by 4.28%, and the urea production enterprise order days increased by 12.07% [9]. Natural Rubber - Spot Prices: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex increased by 2.19%, and the whole latex basis increased by 4.88% [10]. - Price Spreads: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 12.50%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 19.53% [10]. - Fundamental Data: The production of natural rubber in Thailand, Indonesia, and India in December increased, while the production in China decreased. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed slightly [10]. - Inventory: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.07%, and the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 2.49% [10]. Glass and Soda Ash - Prices: The prices of glass and soda ash futures and spot prices increased slightly on January 30 [13]. - Supply: The soda ash operating rate decreased by 2.58%, and the soda ash weekly production increased by 1.48%. The float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.20%, and the photovoltaic glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.29% [13]. - Inventory: The glass inventory decreased by 1.22%, and the soda ash factory inventory increased by 1.51% [13]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream Prices: Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha prices increased [14]. - Downstream Product Prices: The prices of POY, FDY, DTY, and other polyester products changed slightly [14]. - PX - Related: The CFR China PX price decreased by 0.3%, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 4.1% [14]. - PTA - Related: The PTA East China spot price increased by 0.2%, and the PTA operating rate decreased by 0.3% [14]. - MEG - Related: The MEG East China spot price decreased by 0.2%, and the MEG port inventory increased by 7.9% [14]. Crude Oil - Prices: Brent crude oil increased by 3.38%, WTI crude oil increased by 3.50%, and SC crude oil increased by 2.48% [15]. - Price Spreads: The Brent M1 - M3 spread increased by 10.24%, and the WTI M1 - M3 spread increased by 32.26% [15]. - Refined Oil Prices: NYM RBOB increased by 1.46%, and NYM ULSD decreased by 3.03% [15]. - Refined Oil Crack Spreads: The US gasoline crack spread increased by 6.50%, and the US diesel crack spread decreased by 7.82% [15].