原木期货日报-20260130

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market is currently showing strong performance, with prices continuing to rise in Jiangsu due to low inventory and shortages of some specifications. As the Spring Festival approaches, the trading activity in the spot market is expected to gradually decline. The 03 contract has relatively low inventory pressure due to low inventory levels and expected decreases in future shipments. However, the weak demand limits the upside potential. Recently, the valuation of the log futures has been slightly repaired, and it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach at the current price [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of different log contracts (LG2601, LG2603, LG2605, LG2607) all increased on January 29 compared to January 28, with increases ranging from 0.25% to 1.23%. The basis of the main contract decreased by 9.5. Among spot prices, the price of 4A medium - sized radiata pine in Taicang Port increased by 1.30%, while most other spot prices remained unchanged [1] 3.2 Import Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.944 on January 30, with a minimal change from the previous day. The import theoretical cost was 752.37 yuan, up 0.29 yuan from the previous day, with a negligible increase [1] 3.3 Supply - In December, the port reverse - transport volume was 204.0 million cubic meters, a 7.82% increase from November. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 12.24% [1] 3.4 Inventory - As of January 23, the total inventory of domestic softwood logs was 249 million cubic meters, a 3.11% decrease from the previous week. Inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreased, with Jiangsu experiencing a significant 19.75% decline [1][2] 3.5 Demand - As of January 23, the daily average log出库 volume was 6.18 million cubic meters, a slight increase of 0.02 million cubic meters from the previous week. The daily average log出库 volume in Shandong increased by 11%, while that in Jiangsu decreased by 15% [1][2] 3.6 Forecast of Arrival - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 7, a 13% decrease from the previous week. The total arrival volume was about 21.9 million cubic meters, an 11% decrease from the previous week [2]