镍日报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector has a strong atmosphere, and the enthusiasm for long - position trading by funds remains high. Shanghai nickel maintains a strong and volatile operation supported by supply - side disturbances in Indonesia. On the 29th, the main contract closed at 147,470, up 1.79%. The total open interest decreased by 6,026 lots to 387,000 lots compared with the previous day [7]. - The latest news indicates that the RKAB approval quota may be adjusted to 2.6 billion tons, and the expected shortage of nickel ore supply supports miners to continuously raise quotes. The ex - factory average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron remained flat at 1,055 yuan per nickel point. The strong bullish sentiment at the pure nickel end drove the price of nickel iron to rise. However, due to high costs, the downstream's willingness to accept has decreased, but there were few low - price transactions, and the overall price remained firm supported by the nickel price [7]. - In 2026, although some old 2026 RKAB quotas can be used in the first quarter, the delay in the verification of the MOMS system of most mines has affected their normal shipments. Previously, Vale also stated that the currently approved quota is only 30% of the production demand, further strengthening the expectation of quota reduction. It is necessary to closely follow the policy statements of the Indonesian government and the actual quota issuance rhythm in the future. It is expected that policy disturbances will support the nickel market to continue to have significant upward elasticity [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The non - ferrous metals sector is in a strong atmosphere, and funds are enthusiastic about long - position trading. Shanghai nickel is in a strong and volatile state supported by supply - side disturbances in Indonesia. On the 29th, the main contract closed at 147,470 with a 1.79% increase, and the total open interest decreased by 6,026 lots to 387,000 lots [7]. - The RKAB approval quota may be adjusted to 2.6 billion tons, leading to an expected shortage of nickel ore supply and prompting miners to raise quotes. The ex - factory price of high - nickel pig iron remained flat, and the price of nickel iron rose following the strong sentiment at the pure nickel end. High costs reduced the downstream's acceptance, but low - price transactions were rare, and the price remained firm [7]. - In 2026, quota availability and shipment issues, along with Vale's statement on approved quotas, strengthen the quota reduction expectation. Policy disturbances are expected to bring upward elasticity to the nickel market [7]. 3.2行业要闻 - PT Vale Indonesia is accelerating the commissioning of the HPAL Pomalaa project in Southeast Sulawesi. As of December 2025, the project's construction progress reached about 60%. Two autoclave units have arrived at the project site, and three more are planned for subsequent delivery. The company aims to complete the mechanized construction of the HPAL Pomalaa factory by August 2026. PT Vale is the sole nickel ore supplier for the HPAL Pomalaa factory [8][10]. - First Quantum Minerals Ltd. released its preliminary production data for 2025 and production, cost, and capital expenditure guidelines for 2026 - 2028. In 2025, its copper production was about 396,000 tons, within the revised guidance range; gold production was about 152,000 ounces, higher than the upper limit of the guidance; and Enterprise nickel production also exceeded expectations. The company slightly lowered the production guidelines for copper and gold in 2026 - 2027, while keeping the nickel production guideline unchanged. The unit cash cost of copper and AISC are expected to be higher than previously expected, and the 2026 capital expenditure guideline is raised [10]. - The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association expects the domestic nickel smelting industry's nickel ore demand in 2026 to be about 340 - 350 million tons. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to strategically adjust the nickel ore production quota (RKAB) to 250 - 260 million tons in 2026. The existing quotas are allowed to be extended until March 31, 2026, and the actual annual supply depends on later government evaluations and quota supplements [10].