铝日报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Driven by the sharp rise in gold prices and macro - grand narratives, the non - ferrous metal sector has been continuously excited. On the 29th, Shanghai copper increased in position and soared, reaching a new high above 110,000. Shanghai aluminum followed suit, approaching 26,000 at its highest. The 2603 contract closed at 25,590, up 2.92%. The total position decreased by 4,703 to 805,000 lots. LME aluminum reached a maximum of $3,341/ton, and the import window remained closed, with a theoretical loss of - 2,000 yuan/ton for spot imports. The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. The US dollar maintained a depreciating trend, and liquidity remained loose. Meanwhile, the escalation of the US - Iran conflict raised concerns about overseas aluminum ingot logistics supply. Aluminum prices remained strong under the strong macro - narrative logic. The subsequent focus should be on whether the terminal price transmission is smooth. The continuously rising aluminum prices have significantly suppressed terminal consumption, dampening the downstream's pre - holiday stocking willingness. Some enterprises plan to enter the holiday mode ahead of schedule. The social inventory of aluminum ingots has increased to 777,000 tons, at a high level in the past three years. At the same time, the Shanghai Futures Exchange has expanded the list of aluminum delivery brands, adding Xinjiang Qiya and Jili Baikuang as delivery brands, involving a production capacity of 1.3 million tons, aiming to cool down the overheated market. It is expected that aluminum prices will be prone to rise and difficult to fall under the support of loose liquidity and capital rotation. A low - buying strategy should be maintained before the strong macro - narrative logic is reversed. Future attention should be paid to the smoothness of the terminal price transmission chain [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - On the 29th, Shanghai copper soared, and Shanghai aluminum followed. The 2603 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 25,590, up 2.92%, with a total position of 805,000 lots after a decrease of 4,703. LME aluminum reached $3,341/ton, and the import window was closed with a theoretical loss of - 2,000 yuan/ton for spot imports [7] - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, the US dollar depreciated, and liquidity was loose. The US - Iran conflict raised concerns about aluminum supply. Aluminum prices were strong, but the rising prices suppressed terminal consumption, and some enterprises planned early holidays. The social inventory of aluminum ingots reached 777,000 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange expanded delivery brands [7] - Aluminum prices are expected to be prone to rise and difficult to fall. A low - buying strategy is recommended before the macro - narrative logic changes, and attention should be paid to terminal price transmission [7] 3.2行业要闻 - On January 21, 2026, a mine collapse in Guinea's Siguiri Province killed 6 miners. The accident occurred in the gold - mining area, about 800 kilometers from the bauxite core area, and did not affect bauxite production [8][10] - 19 air - conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, launched the implementation of "aluminum replacing copper" standards. Some brands may launch aluminum - made household air - conditioners in 2026, while others have no such plan [9] - Rio Tinto will cut the production of its Yarwun alumina refinery in Australia by 40% from October 2026 to extend its operation until 2035. This will reduce the annual alumina production by about 1.2 million tons and affect about 180 jobs [9] - India's state - owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026. It is also expanding the fifth production line at its Damanjodi alumina refinery, increasing the annual capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [9]