有色早报-20260130

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a bullish outlook on copper prices in the medium - term, as copper fundamentals show limited supply and increasing demand. The current global consumption of copper is strong, and although the pre - Spring Festival inventory accumulation in China may be faster than expected, the post - festival inventory depletion could also be rapid [1]. - For aluminum, the LME 0 - 3M spread has returned to negative, but the overseas active restocking supports the aluminum price. The domestic internal demand has short - term support, and the overall market is in a high - level oscillation with a slight decline [2]. - In the zinc market, the domestic fundamentals are average, but the market is optimistic about zinc's potential for price increase due to limited long - term capital expenditure and potential supply disturbances from Iranian zinc mines. Attention should be paid to reverse - arbitrage opportunities [8]. - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is weak, with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak overall demand, and a high - level decline in Jinchuan premium. There is a short - term game between policies and fundamentals [12]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak, mainly following the nickel price. The steel mill production is maintained at a high level, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory has a slight reduction from a high level [14]. - For lead, it is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,100 - 17,600 next week. The supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices in the short term [15]. - Tin can be considered as a long - position allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter. In the long - term, if there is a macroeconomic inflection point, the price may fluctuate downward significantly in the second half of 2026 [16]. - Industrial silicon's price is expected to oscillate with costs in the short term and at the cycle bottom with seasonal marginal cost as the anchor in the long term, as the supply is shrinking and the short - term demand is approaching a balance [19]. - Lithium carbonate's short - term supply and demand are close to balance in January. If the market expectation cools down or the intermediate inventory reaches a low level, a resonance between the futures and spot markets may occur [21]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Categories Copper - From January 23 to 29, 2026, the spot import profit increased by 1893.13, and the three - month import profit increased by 397.55. The LME copper inventory increased by 2150, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 1100. The copper price tested the 99,000 support level during the week and then rose sharply on the Friday night session [1]. Aluminum - During the same period, the price of Shanghai aluminum ingots increased by 600, and the aluminum LME inventory decreased by 2250. The aluminum锭基差 and downstream processing fees are still at a low level, and the apparent demand for aluminum ingots and aluminum products has rebounded [1][2]. Zinc - The spot premium decreased by 20, and the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 50. The supply of domestic and imported zinc concentrates has tightened, and the demand is seasonally weak. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation, and the market is optimistic about zinc's price increase in the long - term [6][8]. Nickel - The pure nickel production decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The domestic inventory had a slight increase, and the LME inventory remained stable. There is a short - term game between the Indonesian policy and the fundamentals [11][12]. Stainless Steel - The prices of 304 cold - rolled coils, 304 hot - rolled coils, 201 cold - rolled coils, 430 cold - rolled coils, and waste stainless steel remained unchanged. The fundamentals are weak and mainly follow the nickel price [13][14]. Lead - The supply - side production is expected to increase by 1 - 1.5 tons in January. The demand is expected to weaken, and the inventory has started to accumulate for the second week. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,100 - 17,600 next week [15]. Tin - The tin price oscillated upward this week. The supply - side recovery in the first quarter is controversial, and the demand - side downstream restocking willingness varies. The domestic inventory increased slightly, and the overseas LME inventory oscillated upward. It can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter [16]. Industrial Silicon - The monthly supply continued to shrink, and the short - term demand was close to a balance. The price is expected to oscillate with costs in the short term and at the cycle bottom in the long term [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The SMM electric carbon price decreased by 4000, and the SMM industrial carbon price also decreased by 4000. The short - term supply and demand are close to balance in January, and there may be a resonance between the futures and spot markets in the future [21].