建信期货钢材日评-20260130

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report On January 29, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures rebounded significantly, recovering the losses of the previous three trading days. Considering the news factors leading to the recent rebound in steel prices and the supply-demand balance in the fundamentals, it is expected that the market will likely fluctuate with an upward trend in the future. Investors can wait for dips to arrange medium- and long-term hedging or investment positions [6][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: On January 29, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures 2605 rebounded significantly, recovering the losses of the previous three trading days. The prices of some rebar and hot-rolled coil in the spot market increased [5][6][8]. - Technical Indicators: The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar and hot-rolled coil 2605 contracts both showed golden crosses, and the daily MACD green bars both narrowed [8]. - News Factors: The regulatory policy tightening sent a cooling signal to the irrational rise of some metal prices, but failed to stop the continuous increase of some metal prices. The black metal commodity prices generally followed the upward trend of the metal sector. The international energy prices rose due to the tense situation in the Middle East, causing coal and coke prices to stop falling and rebound [9][10]. - Fundamentals: The production of the five major steel products has been slightly increasing for five consecutive weeks, while the demand has been declining for two consecutive weeks with a narrowing decline. The total inventory has been accumulating for two consecutive weeks due to the seasonal decline in demand. The spot price of iron ore has rebounded after a significant decline, and the first round of price increase for coke is about to be implemented [10]. - Raw Materials: The shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil decreased by 13.3% compared with the previous four weeks, but the arrival volume increased by 3.2%. The port iron ore inventory reached a record high of 1.67 billion tons. The independent coking enterprises slightly reduced production after increasing production following steel enterprises. The supply of imported coal has rebounded again, but the supply and demand are still relatively balanced considering the cold weather in most parts of the north [11]. 3.2 Industry News - National Policies: The National Development and Reform Commission will strengthen the comprehensive coordination of coal, electricity, oil, and gas during the Spring Festival travel rush. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to promote the photovoltaic industry to return to a healthy and rational development path [12]. - Enterprise Performance: Many steel and coal enterprises released performance forecasts. Some enterprises such as Youfa Group, Sansteel Minguang, Fangda Special Steel, and Shandong Iron and Steel achieved profit growth or turnaround, while some enterprises such as Lanhua Kechuang, Hengyuan Coal and Electricity, and Liaoning Energy suffered losses [13][14]. - Industry Developments: Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum Group's annual coal production capacity exceeded 50 million tons, and its coal industry's per capita production efficiency increased. Yunnan Energy Investment disclosed its new energy power generation data, and India set a coal production target for the 2026 - 2027 fiscal year [14][15]. 3.3 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major markets, weekly production of the five major steel products, inventory of steel mills and social inventory, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates, national daily average pig iron production, apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai spot and May contracts for rebar and hot-rolled coil [16][18][26][35][36].