广发期货日评-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market trading divergence is obvious, and there are initial signs of style switching. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, reduce futures positions in a timely manner, and try to construct a bull spread strategy with put options on the CSI 300 Index [2]. - The yield further decline is blocked, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate faces significant resistance around 1.8%. It may fluctuate in the range of 1.8% - 1.85% in the short term, and the T2603 contract may oscillate in the range of 108 - 108.3. Maintain range - bound operations for the unilateral strategy and arrange position transfers in advance before the Spring Festival [2]. - Due to the sharp drop in US stocks and the resulting liquidity crunch, commodities "flash - crashed" and then rebounded. Gold ended its consecutive rise. It is recommended to take profits on gold long positions when the price is high, and use long - call options to replace long positions. For silver, maintain a light - long position when the price retraces. Temporarily observe the platinum market [2]. - The EC of container shipping oscillates upward. For steel products, the price of rebar and hot - rolled coil has certain reference ranges, and the long spread of hot - rolled coil and rebar can be held. For iron ore, short positions can be arranged when the price is around 800. For coking coal and coke, they are viewed as oscillating strongly, and a long - coking - coal and short - coke strategy can be adopted. Other non - ferrous metals also have corresponding operation suggestions [2]. - For new energy products, industrial silicon oscillates upward, while polysilicon futures open high and close low, and lithium carbonate adjusts downward. Each has corresponding operation suggestions [2]. - For chemical products, different products such as PX, PTA, short - fiber, etc. have different market situations and corresponding operation suggestions, mainly including observing, range - bound operations, and spread trading [2]. - For agricultural products, different products such as soybean meal, palm oil, sugar, etc. have different market trends and operation suggestions, including short - selling on rallies, long - holding, etc. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Equity Index Futures - The style of the equity index shows rotation, with the large - cap index leading the rise. There is a large outflow of broad - based ETFs, and the market trading divergence is obvious. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, reduce futures positions in a timely manner, and try to construct a bull spread strategy with put options on the CSI 300 Index [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - The current policy lacks new catalysts, and the yield further decline is blocked. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate faces significant resistance around 1.8%, and may fluctuate in the range of 1.8% - 1.85% in the short term. The T2603 contract may oscillate in the range of 108 - 108.3. Maintain range - bound operations for the unilateral strategy, and arrange position transfers in advance before the Spring Festival to prevent insufficient liquidity after the festival [2]. Precious Metals - After the sharp drop in US stocks and the resulting liquidity crunch, commodities "flash - crashed" and then rebounded. Gold ended its consecutive rise. It is recommended to take profits on gold long positions when the price is high, and use long - call options to replace long positions. For silver, maintain a light - long position when the price retraces. Temporarily observe the platinum market due to the easing of supply tension [2]. Shipping - The EC of container shipping oscillates upward [2]. Steel and Non - Ferrous Metals - Steel: Affected by market sentiment, the steel price strengthens. The rebar fluctuates in the range of 3000 - 3200, and the hot - rolled coil fluctuates in the range of 3150 - 3350. The long spread of hot - rolled coil and rebar can be held [2]. - Iron Ore: The steel mills' replenishment is realized, and the port inventory pressure continues to increase. Short positions can be arranged when the price is around 800 [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal and coke are viewed as oscillating strongly. The coking coal price in Shanxi has loosened, and the Mongolian coal follows the disk fluctuation. The mainstream coking enterprises' price increase has been implemented. A long - coking - coal and short - coke strategy can be adopted [2]. - Other Non - Ferrous Metals: Each non - ferrous metal has its own market situation and operation suggestions, such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. [2] New Energy - Industrial Silicon: Oscillates upward and opens an arbitrage window, with the main contract referring to the range of 8200 - 9200 [2]. - Polysilicon: The downstream demand is weak, and the polysilicon futures open high and close low. It is mainly in high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to observe [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: The bullish factors fade, the market divergence intensifies, and the disk adjusts downward. The main contract refers to the range of 155,000 - 170,000, and cautious operations are recommended within the range [2]. Chemical Industry - Different chemical products such as PX, PTA, short - fiber, etc. have different market situations and corresponding operation suggestions, mainly including observing, range - bound operations, and spread trading [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybean meal, palm oil, sugar, etc. have different market trends and operation suggestions, including short - selling on rallies, long - holding, etc. [2]