永安期货集运早报-20260130

1. Contract Data - EC2602 had a closing price of 1717.5, a decline of -0.09%, a basis of 141.8, a trading volume of 432, an open interest of 2812, and an open interest change of -374 [2][30] - EC2604 had a closing price of 1249.7, an increase of 1.68%, a basis of 609.6, a trading volume of 27481, an open interest of 39669, and an open interest change of -477 [2][30] - EC2606 had a closing price of 1576.0, an increase of 5.55%, a basis of 283.3, a trading volume of ୧୫32, an open interest of 11306, and an open interest change of 1704 [2][30] - EC2608 had a closing price of 1645.4, an increase of 5.42%, a basis of 213.9, a trading volume of 1154, an open interest of 1666, and an open interest change of 117 [2][30] - EC2610 had a closing price of 1151.2, an increase of 1.42%, a basis of 708.1, a trading volume of 2032, an open interest of 8933, and an open interest change of 211 [2][30] 2. Month - Spread Data - The month - spread of EC2502 - 2604 was 467.8, with a day - on - day change of -22.2 and a week - on - week change of -111.6 [2][30] - The month - spread of EC2504 - 2606 was -326.3, with a day - on - day change of -62.1 and a week - on - week change of -51.7 [2][30] 3. Spot and Index Data - The spot (European line) index on 2026/1/26 was 1859.31 points, a decline of -4.86% compared to the previous period [2][30] - The SCFI (European line) on 2026/1/23 was 1676 dollars/TEU, a decline of -4.83% compared to the previous period [2][30] 4. Market Analysis and Suggestions - Recent geopolitical tensions, stable February quotes from Maersk, and potential rush shipments and price - holding stories in March may prevent the market from falling in the short term. The current valuation is moderately high, and the upward space depends on capital behavior [3][31] - It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. The focus of short - selling should be on the far - month contract 2610, which is more affected by the off - season and policies. Caution should be maintained for the 2604 contract unless there is a significant premium on the board [3][31] - The export tax rebate adjustment policy is negative for contracts after April. The valuations of the 06 and 08 contracts are difficult to determine, and they are currently within a reasonable range but are greatly affected by geopolitics, so cautious operation is recommended [3][31] 5. European Line Spot Situation - In Week 5, MSK's opening price was 2450 (down 300 from the previous period), PA was 2400 (special price 2200), and OA was 2500 - 2700 dollars. The central price was 2500 dollars, equivalent to 1750 points on the board [4][32] - In Week 6, MSK's opening price was 2050 (down 400 from the previous period), PA was around 2200, MSC was 2340, and OA was 2300 - 2400 dollars. The central price was 2300 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the board [4][32] - On Tuesday, MSK's opening price for February weeks 7 - 9 was 1950 (down 100 from the previous period), lower than market expectations [4][32] 6. Related News - On January 30, Hamas announced that the handover of governance in the Gaza Strip was fully ready [5][33] - On January 30, US President Trump said that Hamas seemed about to disarm and that a team was going to Iran [5][33]