广发期货日报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term tin prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment, so it's advisable to participate with caution. In the medium - to - long - term, although the supply side is gradually recovering, considering the low elasticity of the supply end and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy for tin prices is recommended [2]. Copper - In the short term, if the CL premium reverses, COMEX copper inventory may flow back to non - US regions, alleviating supply pressure there; if it remains narrow, copper prices may fluctuate in a wide range with limited upward potential, and if it widens, copper prices may maintain a relatively strong trend. In the medium - to - long - term, the price bottom is expected to rise gradually under the constraint of capital expenditure on the supply side, but current prices are suppressing downstream demand, and price fluctuations may intensify [3]. Zinc - The weakening of the US dollar index supports zinc prices. The shortage of zinc ore at the mine end supports prices, and the supply pressure of refined zinc is easing. The demand side has shown a significant recovery in the processing industry's operating rate after the price correction, and the terminal orders are stable. The global zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. Short - term prices have limited downside space, and it is recommended to focus on the changes in zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory, with the main contract supported at around 25,000 - 25,500 yuan/ton [5]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price has risen following commodities like coking coal. In January, both supply and demand have weakened slightly, with a slight inventory build - up. It is necessary to pay attention to the production reduction situation of industrial silicon. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton, with the upper limit pressured by the opening of the arbitrage window and the lower limit supported by costs [7]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price is stable, but downstream components and battery cells are still reducing production despite price increases and increased exports due to weak domestic demand and the approaching Spring Festival. The demand for polysilicon is low, and the price is under pressure. In February, there is still pressure to reduce production. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the production reduction process and downstream demand recovery [8]. Aluminum - The alumina market is affected by the overall risk - preference recovery in the commodity market and supply - contraction expectations, but the high - inventory pressure in the domestic spot market still suppresses prices. It is expected to continue to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash - cost line. The aluminum market has shown a high - level breakthrough, but the domestic fundamentals are under pressure. In the medium - to - long - term, aluminum prices are expected to be strong and difficult to fall, but there is a risk of a high - level correction in the short term [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market has followed the rise in aluminum prices but lacks financial attributes and has poor downstream acceptance. The cost is the main driving factor, and the fundamentals show a typical seasonal supply - and - demand weakness. It is expected that the ADC12 price will continue to oscillate in the high - level range of 22,500 - 24,500 yuan/ton in the short term [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is supported by the strong performance of the non - ferrous sector and the smelters' hoarding mentality due to the expected tight supply of raw materials. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 145,000 - 155,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is driven by the strong commodity sentiment and the improvement in fundamentals due to steel - mill production cuts. In the short term, it is expected to adjust in a strong - oscillation pattern, with the main contract in the range of 14,200 - 15,200 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the news from the ore end and the dynamics of steel mills [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market has shown a weak adjustment. Although the fundamentals show certain inventory - reduction resilience during the off - season, which supports prices, there may be a short - term decline adjustment. It is recommended to operate cautiously in the range of 155,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price rose 0.46% to 438,600 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin open discount dropped 100% to 0 yuan/ton [2]. - The import loss of tin increased 88.73% to - 10,909.52 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.88 [2]. Fundamental Data - In December, the import of tin ore increased 16.81% to 17,637 tons, and the production of SMM refined tin decreased 0.06% to 15,950 tons [2]. - The import of refined tin increased 29.54% to 1,548 tons, and the export increased 41.84% to 2,763 tons [2]. Inventory - SHEF inventory increased 1.79% to 9,720 tons, and social inventory increased 4.94% to 10,678 tons [2]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose 2.48% to 104,185 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased 70 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [3]. - The import loss of copper decreased to - 106 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.77 [3]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased 6.80% to 117.81 million tons, and the import decreased 4.02% to 26.02 million tons [3]. Inventory - The domestic social inventory of copper decreased 2.24% to 32.28 million tons, and the SHFE inventory increased 5.82% to 22.59 million tons [3]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose 0.20% to 25,290 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased 5 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton [5]. - The import loss of zinc increased to - 2,443 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased slightly to 7.48 [5]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of refined zinc decreased 7.24% to 55.21 million tons, and the import decreased 51.94% to 0.88 million tons [5]. Inventory - The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots in China decreased 1.35% to 11.72 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased 0.57% to 11 million tons [5]. Industrial Silicon Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased 33.67% to 325 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In December, the national production of industrial silicon decreased 1.15% to 39.71 million tons, and the production in Xinjiang increased 6.46% to 25.29 million tons [7]. Inventory - The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased 0.36% to 55.40 million tons, and the warehouse - receipt inventory increased 2.89% to 6.83 million tons [7]. Polysilicon Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52,500 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type silicon wafers of 210mm decreased 6.13% to 1.53 yuan/piece [8]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of polysilicon increased 0.79% to 11.55 million tons, and the import increased 77.50% to 0.19 million tons [8]. Inventory - The polysilicon inventory increased 0.91% to 33.30 million tons, and the silicon - wafer inventory increased 1.90% to 27.29GW [8]. Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum price rose 2.47% to 24,860 yuan/ton, and the SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased 20 yuan/ton to - 200 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of alumina increased 1.08% to 751.96 million tons, and the production of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased 3.97% to 378.10 million tons [9]. Inventory - The Chinese electrolytic - aluminum social inventory increased 5.25% to 78.20 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased 0.45% to 49.8 million tons [9]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Basis - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose 1.66% to 24,550 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased 10.48% to 2,719 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased 6.16% to 64 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased 0.46% to 30.41 million tons [11]. Inventory - The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased 2.11% to 4.64 million tons, and the daily inventory in Foshan increased 0.33% to 30,343 tons [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 1.30% to 148,000 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel rose 6.82% to 7,050 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of Chinese refined nickel increased 26.10% to 31,400 tons, and the import increased 84.63% to 23,394 tons [12]. Inventory - SHFE inventory increased 5.43% to 50,794 tons, and social inventory increased 4.38% to 66,294 tons [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 14,500 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures price difference decreased 58.54% to 82 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel decreased 26.72% to 131.59 million tons, and the import increased 29.32% to 14.50 million tons [14]. Inventory - The social inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel (Wuxi + Foshan) increased 0.82% to 45.77 million tons, and the SHFE warehouse - receipt inventory increased 9.90% to 4.36 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased 2.33% to 168,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased 2.37% to 164,500 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of lithium carbonate increased 4.04% to 99,200 tons, and the demand decreased 2.50% to 130,118 tons [17]. Inventory - The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased 12.23% to 56,664 tons, and the downstream inventory decreased 7.21% to 38,998 tons [17].