大越期货沪锌期货早报-20260130

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The short - term trend of Shanghai zinc ZN2603 is expected to oscillate and decline. The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc oscillating and strengthening, with increased trading volume and both long and short positions reducing, with more reduction in long positions. Technically, the price is above the moving - average system with strong support, short - term indicators KDJ are rising and operating in the strong area, and the trend indicator shows that the long - position strength is increasing while the short - position strength is decreasing, but the market may still oscillate and fall in the short term [2][18] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, with a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons, indicating a bullish situation [2] 2. Basis Analysis - The spot price is 25,300, and the basis is - 650, showing a bearish situation [2] 3. Inventory Analysis - On January 29, LME zinc inventory decreased by 625 tons to 109,750 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 100 tons to 28,241 tons, presenting a bullish situation [2] 4. Futures Market Conditions on January 29 - For different delivery months of zinc futures, prices, trading volumes, and position changes vary. For example, for the 2603 contract, the opening price was 25,450, the highest price was 26,300, the closing price was 25,950, the trading volume was 329,041 lots, and the open interest decreased by 3,698 lots [3] 5. Domestic Spot Market Conditions on January 29 - The domestic spot price of zinc concentrate TC was 1,300 yuan/metal ton for domestic production and 40 - 50 dollars/dry ton for imports. The price of 0 zinc in different regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, and Zhejiang increased, with prices ranging from 25,210 - 25,400 yuan/ton [4] 6. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From January 19 to January 29, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets decreased. Compared with January 22, it decreased by 0.12 tons, and compared with January 26, it decreased by 0.20 tons [5] 7. Zinc Futures Warehouse Receipt Report on January 29 - The total zinc warehouse receipts on SHFE decreased by 100 tons to 28,241 tons, with decreases in Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Tianjin [6] 8. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution on January 29 - LME zinc inventory decreased by 625 tons to 109,750 tons, with changes in different locations such as Singapore [7] 9. Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on January 29 - In major domestic cities, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate increased by 10 yuan, with prices ranging from 21,680 - 21,980 yuan [8] 10. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on January 29 - The price of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters increased by 50 yuan, with prices ranging from 25,000 - 26,000 yuan [11] 11. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee on January 28 - The processing fee for domestic 50% - grade zinc concentrate ranged from 1,100 - 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and for 48% - grade imported zinc concentrate, it was 30 - 50 dollars/kiloton [16] 12. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on January 29 - In terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures. In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Dongzheng Futures, and Guotai Junan. In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures [17]