铁矿石早报（2026-1-30）-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply and demand of iron ore is loose, with steel mills reducing molten iron production, port inventories increasing, and weak terminal demand. The market is expected to be volatile and bearish. The spot price is at a premium to the futures, the port inventory is increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, the price is below the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is upward, and the main contract has a net long position with more long positions added. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - Steel mills' molten iron production starts to decrease, overall supply and demand are loose, port inventory is accumulating, and terminal demand is weak, which is bearish [2] 3.2 Basis Analysis - The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 840, with a basis of 41; the spot price of Brazilian blend at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 845, with a basis of 46. The spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2] 3.3 Inventory Analysis - Port inventory is 17,496.53 tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, which is bearish [2] 3.4 Market Trend Analysis - The price is below the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is upward, which is neutral [2] 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The main iron ore contract has a net long position with more long positions added, which is bullish [2] 3.6 Market Expectation Analysis - Domestic demand is decreasing and port inventory is accumulating, so the market is expected to be volatile and bearish [2] 3.7 Factors Analysis 3.7.1 Bullish Factors - Molten iron production remains at a high level [6] - Port inventory decreases [6] - Import is at a loss [6] - The price of downstream steel products is rising, and the tolerance for high - priced raw materials is strong [6] 3.7.2 Bearish Factors - Future shipment volume will increase [6] - Terminal demand remains weak [6]