大越期货纯碱早报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak. The overall supply is expected to be abundant with high production from alkali plants. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory in soda ash plants is at a historically high level for the same period. The industry's supply-demand mismatch has not been effectively improved, and the short - term outlook is mainly for volatile movement [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: High production from alkali plants and expected abundant supply; declining daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass; high inventory in soda ash plants; bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,180 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1,224 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 44 yuan, indicating futures are at a premium to the spot; bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 154.42 tons, a 1.51% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average; bearish [2][32]. - Market trend: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; bullish [2]. - Main positions: Net short position of the main players, with short positions decreasing; bearish [2]. - Outlook: The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The expected full - production time of the second - phase production line of Yuangxing Energy is postponed [3]. - Negative factors: Upcoming resumption of production lines in enterprises and no new maintenance plans, so production is expected to remain high; reduced production of photovoltaic glass, leading to weaker demand for soda ash; the main logic is that supply is high, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not improved effectively [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract increased from 1,198 yuan/ton to 1,224 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.17%. The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe increased from 1,150 yuan/ton to 1,180 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.61%. The main basis decreased from - 48 yuan/ton to - 44 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.33% [6]. 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production - Production profit: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 168.30 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production process is - 108 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [14]. - Operating rate and output: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 86.82%. The weekly output is 77.17 tons, with heavy - quality soda ash production at 41.29 tons, at a historically high level [17][19]. - Capacity changes: In 2023, the total new capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; the planned new capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with 100 tons actually put into production [20]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Sales - to - production ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 99.70% [23]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.07 tons, with an operating rate of 71.62% [26]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 154.42 tons, a 1.51% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [32]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a supply - demand balance sheet for soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [33].