大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 22,217 tons, a 1.71% decrease from the previous week, but higher than the historical average. In December 2025, lithium carbonate production was 99,200 physical tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 97,970 physical tons, a 1.23% decrease. The import volume in December 2025 was 23,989 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 22,500 physical tons, a 6.20% decrease [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 96,590 tons, a 0.73% increase from the previous week, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,868 tons, a 3.35% increase. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be depleted [8][9]. - Cost side: The CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased on a daily basis, lower than the historical average. The cost of externally - purchased spodumene concentrate is 157,943 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily basis remaining unchanged, and the production income is 9,203 yuan/ton, showing a profit. The cost of externally - purchased lepidolite is 153,199 yuan/ton, a 0.59% decrease on a daily basis, and the production income is 8,971 yuan/ton, also showing a profit. The production cost on the recycling side is generally higher than that on the ore side, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost on the salt lake side is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that on the ore side, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9][10]. - Market outlook: The supply - demand pattern is shifting towards supply - led. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 161,520 - 173,480 [9]. - Influencing factors: Positive factors include the production cut plans of lepidolite manufacturers and the decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile on a month - on - month basis. Negative factors include the continuous high supply on the ore/salt lake side with limited decline [11][12]. - Main logic: Under the tight supply - demand balance, the market sentiment is oscillating due to news [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: Last week's lithium carbonate production decreased by 1.71% week - on - week but was higher than the historical average. In December 2025, production was 99,200 physical tons, and the next - month prediction shows a 1.23% decrease. The import volume in December 2025 was 23,989 physical tons, and the next - month prediction shows a 6.20% decrease [8][9]. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate and ternary material sample enterprises increased last week. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be depleted [8][9]. - Cost: The CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased, lower than the historical average. Different raw material costs and production incomes vary, with the salt lake side having a significant cost advantage [9][10]. - Market: The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 161,520 - 173,480. Positive factors include lepidolite production cuts and reduced imports from Chile, while negative factors are high ore/salt lake supply [9][11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Fundamental: Bullish. The cost of externally - purchased raw materials shows profitability in most cases, and the salt lake side has strong production motivation [10]. - Basis: On January 29, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 168,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 3,180 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [10]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory remained unchanged at 19,834 tons, equal to the historical average. The downstream inventory increased by 8.00% to 40,599 tons, equal to the historical average. Other inventories decreased by 6.97% to 47,880 tons, equal to the historical average. The total inventory decreased by 1.29% to 107,482 tons, equal to the historical average, which is neutral [10]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [10]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [10]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Price changes: The prices of various lithium - related products, such as spodumene, lepidolite concentrate, battery - grade lithium carbonate, etc., showed different degrees of decline or increase. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased from 172,000 yuan/ton to 168,000 yuan/ton, a 2.33% decrease [16]. - Supply - demand data: Supply - side data includes production, import, and export volumes of lithium carbonate and related products, as well as开工 rates. Demand - side data includes inventory, production, and consumption of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials [18]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time [24]. - Production: The production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lepidolite has shown different trends in different years [24]. - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has changed, with different sources such as Australia [24]. - Self - sufficiency rate: The self - sufficiency rates of spodumene, lithium ore, and lepidolite have also changed over time [24]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore has fluctuated [24]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Ore - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the demand, production, import, and export of domestic lithium ore have different values each month, resulting in different supply - demand balances [27]. 3.6 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Weekly and monthly production: The production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, and recycling materials) has different trends in different time periods [30]. - Capacity: The monthly capacity of lithium carbonate from different raw materials has also changed over time [30]. - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has fluctuated [32]. - Recycling: The monthly recycling volume of waste lithium - ion batteries has different trends [34]. 3.7 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the demand, production, import, and export of lithium carbonate have different values each month, resulting in different supply - demand balances [37]. 3.8 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity utilization rate: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has changed over time [39]. - Production: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) has different trends [39]. - Export: The export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide has changed [39]. 3.9 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the demand, production, import, and export of lithium hydroxide have different values each month, resulting in different supply - demand balances [42]. 3.10 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Cost and profit of different raw materials: The cost and profit of externally - purchased spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and recycled materials for lithium carbonate production have different trends [45][47]. - Processing cost composition: The processing cost composition of lepidolite and spodumene includes energy consumption, auxiliary materials, and miscellaneous items [45]. - Import and other profits: The import profit of lithium carbonate, the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the profit of lithium hydroxide processing and export have different trends [45][47][50]. 3.11 Inventory - Lithium carbonate: The warehouse receipts, weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate from different sources (smelter, downstream, etc.) have changed over time [53]. - Lithium hydroxide: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelter, downstream) has also changed [53]. 3.12 Demand - Lithium Battery - Power Battery - Price: The price of power batteries has changed over time [56]. - Production: The monthly production of power battery cells (ternary and lithium iron phosphate) has different trends [56]. - Loading volume: The monthly loading volume of power batteries (lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials) has changed [56]. - Shipment volume: The monthly shipment volume of power battery cells (lithium iron phosphate and ternary) has different trends [56]. - Export: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed over the years [56]. 3.13 Demand - Lithium Battery - Energy Storage - Inventory: The inventory of lithium battery cells (ternary, lithium iron phosphate, and energy - storage batteries) has changed over time [58]. - Bidding: The energy - storage system EPC and other equipment EPC bidding prices and the average bidding price have changed [58]. - Industry operating rate: The operating rate of the energy - storage battery industry has changed [58]. - Shipment volume: The monthly shipment volume of energy - storage battery cells (household, industrial and commercial, and grid - side) has different trends [58]. - Production: The monthly production of energy - storage battery cells and the predicted production have different trends [58]. - Cost: The cost of 314Ah lithium iron phosphate energy - storage battery cells has changed [58]. 3.14 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: The price of ternary precursors (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) has changed over time [61]. - Cost and profit: The cost and profit of ternary precursors (523 polycrystalline/consumer type) have different trends [61]. - Processing fee: The processing fees of ternary precursors (523 polycrystalline, 622 polycrystalline, 811 polycrystalline) have changed [61]. - Capacity utilization rate: The capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors has changed over the years [61]. - Capacity: The capacity of ternary precursors has changed over time [61]. - Production: The monthly production of ternary precursors (333, 523, 622, 811, NCA) has different trends [61]. 3.15 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Supply - Demand Balance - From 2024 to 2025, the demand, production, import, and export of ternary precursors have different values each month, resulting in different supply - demand balances [64]. 3.16 Demand - Ternary Material - Price: The price of ternary materials (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) has changed over time [67]. - Cost and profit: The cost and profit of ternary materials (5 - series polycrystalline/consumer type) have different trends [67]. - Operating rate: The weekly operating rate of ternary materials has changed over the years [67]. - Capacity: The capacity of ternary materials has changed over time [67]. - Production: The production of ternary materials (NCA, 3 - series, 5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) has different trends [67]. - Processing fee: The processing fees of ternary materials (5 - series polycrystalline, 6 - series polycrystalline, 8 - series polycrystalline) have changed [69]. - Import and export: The import and export volumes of ternary materials have changed over the years [69]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of ternary materials has changed [69]. 3.17 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium (power - type, low - end energy - storage type, mid - high - end energy - storage type) has changed over time [71]. - Cost and profit: The cost and profit of iron phosphate lithium have different trends [71]. - Capacity: The capacity of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium has changed over time [71]. - Operating rate: The monthly operating rate of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium has changed over the years [71]. - Production: The monthly production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium has different trends [74]. - Export: The monthly export volume of iron phosphate lithium has changed over the years [74]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium has changed [76]. 3.18 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production: The production of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) has changed over time [79]. - Export: The export volume of new energy vehicles has changed over the years [79]. - Sales: The sales volume of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) and the total sales volume have changed over time [79]. - Penetration rate: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has changed over the years [80]. - Retail - wholesale ratio: The retail - wholesale ratios of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles in the Passenger Car Association have changed over time [83]. - Inventory index: The monthly inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers have changed over the years [83].