沥青期货早报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the domestic refinery asphalt production plan for February 2026 is 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples decreased, and the sample enterprise output decreased, while the device maintenance volume increased. Next week, the supply pressure may increase. The demand side indicates that the current demand is lower than the historical average level. The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit increased, and the difference between asphalt and delayed coking profit decreased. The crude oil price is strong, which is expected to support the price in the short term. The overall expectation is that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2603 contract oscillating in the range of 3450 - 3506 [7][8]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - price goods and the overall downward demand, along with the strengthening expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In February 2026, domestic refinery asphalt production is planned to be 1.023 million tons, a 3.30% month - on - month decrease. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 28.5235%, a 0.72 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. The sample enterprise output is 476,000 tons, a 2.45% month - on - month decrease, and the device maintenance volume is estimated to be 1.004 million tons, a 4.58% month - on - month increase. Next week, the supply pressure may increase [7]. - Demand: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 26.8%, a 0.01 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease; the construction asphalt开工率 is 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 6.3119%, a 0.53 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 14%, a 1.00 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 20%, a 1.00 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit is 104.92 yuan/ton, a 28.80% month - on - month increase. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 88.7629 yuan/ton, a 2.34% month - on - month decrease. The asphalt processing profit increases, and the difference between asphalt and delayed coking profit decreases. The crude oil price is strong, and it is expected to support the price in the short term [8]. - Basis: On January 29, the Shandong spot price is 3210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 03 contract is - 268 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 862,000 tons, a 5.77% month - on - month increase; the in - factory inventory is 609,000 tons, a 2.09% month - on - month decrease; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 440,000 tons, a 6.38% month - on - month decrease [8]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 03 contract closes above MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, changing from short to long [8]. - Expectation: The refinery's recent production plan has been reduced, reducing the supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, and the overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. The inventory continues to decline. The crude oil price is strong, and the cost support strengthens in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2603 contract oscillating in the range of 3450 - 3506 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend: The report presents the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026 [19]. - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [23][24]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2026 [26][27]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: It presents the historical crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2026 [29][30][31]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: It shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2026 [33][34]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - Regional Market Price Trend: The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026 [36][37]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: It presents the historical asphalt profit trends from 2019 to 2026 [39][40]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: It shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026 [42][43][44]. - Supply Side - Shipment Volume: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2026 [45][46]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: It presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [48][49]. - Output: It shows the historical weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [51][53]. - Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend: It presents the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2026 [54][56]. - Refinery Asphalt Output: It shows the historical refinery asphalt output trends from 2019 to 2025 [57][59]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: It presents the historical weekly capacity utilization rate trends of asphalt from 2023 to 2026 [60][61]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: It shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2026 [63][64]. - Inventory - Exchange Warehouse Receipt: It presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [66][67]. - Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026 [70][71]. - In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio: It presents the historical trends of the in - factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2026 [73][74]. - Import and Export Situation - Export and Import Trends: It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [76][77]. - South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend: It presents the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2026 [80][81]. - Demand Side - Petroleum Coke Output: It shows the historical petroleum coke output trends from 2019 to 2025 [82][83]. - Apparent Consumption: It presents the historical apparent consumption trends from 2019 to 2025 [85][86]. - Downstream Demand - Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment: It shows the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [88][89]. - New Local Special Bonds: It presents the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025 [90]. - Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year: It shows the historical year - on - year trends of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 [90]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: It presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [92][93][95]. - Asphalt开工率 - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率: It shows the historical heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 trends from 2019 to 2026 [97][98]. - Asphalt开工率 by Use: It presents the historical开工率 trends of construction asphalt, modified asphalt, and road - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [100]. - Downstream开工率: It shows the historical开工率 trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, shoe - material TPR, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane from 2021 to 2026 [101][102][103]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the asphalt monthly supply - demand balance sheet from 2024 to 2026, including monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [105].