生猪市场周报：节前供应施压，关注需求表现-20260130

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price of live pigs continued to decline, with the main contract 2605 down 1.69% for the week. In the pre - holiday period, the overall market is expected to maintain the slaughter rhythm, increasing the supply pressure. Although the demand has recovered, the increase is limited, and the pre - holiday market supply pressure is relatively large, which will put downward pressure on live pig prices for a weak adjustment [7][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Market Performance: Live pig prices continued to decline, with the 2605 main contract down 1.69% for the week [7][10]. - Market Outlook: In February, the slaughter time is limited. Although some enterprises are reluctant to sell and support prices, the overall market is expected to maintain the slaughter rhythm before the festival, increasing the supply pressure. On the demand side, transportation in the South has recovered, the slaughter start - up rate has rebounded, and there are pre - holiday stocking expectations. However, with students on holiday, the short - term demand increase is limited. Overall, the demand increase is restricted, and the pre - holiday market supply pressure is large, pressuring live pig prices to adjust weakly [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: - The net short position in futures decreased, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 0. As of January 30, the net short position of the top 20 holders in live pig futures was 46,306 lots, a decrease of 3,594 lots compared to last week, and the number of live pig futures warehouse receipts was 426, a decrease of 433 lots compared to the previous week [13][17]. - The price difference between the lh2605 and lh2607 contracts was - 695, and the price difference between the lh2605 and lh2609 contracts was - 1,655 [21]. - Spot Market: - The basis of live pig contracts: The basis of the March contract was 1,100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the May contract was 1,535 yuan/ton [28]. - The price of live pigs decreased, while the price of piglets increased. The national average price of live pigs was 12.90 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg compared to last week, and the average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.62 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.59 yuan/kg compared to last week [33]. - The price of pork increased, and the price of sows capable of reproduction remained stable. The national average market price of pork was 23.57 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.36 yuan/kg compared to the previous week, and the average market price of binary sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous week [39]. - The pig - grain ratio increased month - on - month but remained below 6:1. As of the week of January 21, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 5.82, an increase of 0.19 compared to the previous week [43][45]. 3. Industry Situation - Upstream: - Supply of sows capable of reproduction: In December 2025, the inventory of sows capable of reproduction was 39.61 million, equivalent to 101.56% of the normal inventory. The destocking speed slowed down. Among them, the inventory of sows capable of reproduction in large - scale farms decreased slightly month - on - month, and the inventory of sows capable of reproduction in small and medium - sized farms decreased month - on - month [48]. - Pig inventory: At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6% and a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. The inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the inventory of small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year [52]. - Slaughter volume and average slaughter weight: In December, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased month - on - month, and the average slaughter weight of live pigs increased slightly [56]. - Industry Profit: - As of January 30, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 124.13 yuan/head, an increase of 8.29 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 25.1 yuan/head, a decrease of 8.29 yuan/head. The breeding profit of laying hens was 0.30 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of 817 meat - crossbred chickens was 0.79 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 yuan/head [61]. - Domestic Market: - In December 2025, China's pork imports were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33%; from January to December, pork imports were 980,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.41% [65]. - Substitute Products: - As of the week of January 30, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.7 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.3 yuan/kg compared to last week, and the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.83 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.08 yuan/kg compared to last week [70]. - Feed: - As of January 30, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,197.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.85 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, and the price of corn was 2,376.27 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.56 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [75]. - As of January 30, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 906.96, and the average market price of pig feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, which was the same as last week [78]. - In December 2025, the monthly feed output was 30.086 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.307 million tons. The sales of piglet feed decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [83]. - CPI: As of December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year [87]. - Downstream: - In the fifth week of 2026, the start - up rate of slaughter enterprises was 36.86%, an increase of 1.68 percentage points compared to last week and an increase of 15.72 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The fresh - sales rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 87.43%, which was the same as last week, and the frozen - product inventory rate was 17.29%, a decrease of 0.01% compared to last week [90]. - As of December 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 48.91 million, a month - on - month increase of 17.52% and a 323.6% increase compared to the previous month. In December 2025, the national catering revenue was 573.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.19% [95]. - Live Pig Stocks: The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [96].