豆粕周报1.19-1.23：南美大豆丰产预期下，豆粕弱势震荡-20260130

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Overall Outlook: Under the expectation of a bumper soybean harvest in South America, soybean meal is in a weak and volatile state. The market is influenced by factors such as the weather in South American soybean - growing areas, Sino - US trade agreements, and domestic supply and demand [1][10]. - Soybean Meal: In the short - term, it will maintain a range - bound pattern. The end - of - year demand peak and spot price premium support the futures price, but news is mixed. The long - term trend depends on the implementation of Sino - US trade agreements and the weather in South American soybean - growing areas [10]. - Soybeans: Domestically, soybeans are also in a range - bound state. The spot price is strong, and short - term demand is good, but the impact of Sino - US trade agreements and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans limit the upward space [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Tips No content provided in the given text. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations have reached a preliminary agreement, which is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. - Domestic imported soybean arrivals will continue to decline in the first quarter, and soybean meal will return to a range - bound state. - Low pig - breeding profits lead to low expectations for pig replenishment, but soybean meal demand in January is good, and the price is expected to be supported [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Soybean Meal: - Positive Factors: Sino - US trade agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; domestic soybean meal inventory in oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in South American soybean - growing area weather. - Negative Factors: The total amount of imported soybeans arriving in January remains relatively high; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [14]. - Soybeans: - Positive Factors: Rising imported soybean costs support the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports prices. - Negative Factors: The Sino - US trade agreement may lead to an increase in Chinese purchases of US soybeans; the increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppresses price expectations [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2016 to 2025, the global soybean harvest area, output, and total supply generally show an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuates [22]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: In the past six months, US soybean planting area, yield, and output have changed slightly, and the期末库存 and new - bean exports also show certain trends [23]. - US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress: In 2024, the US soybean planting, growth, and harvesting progress are compared with the previous year and the five - year average, showing different progress rates at different times [24][25][26]. - Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress: In 2024/25 and 2025/26, the planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans are compared with the previous year and the five - year average [27][28][29][30][31]. 3.5 Position Data No content provided in the given text. 3.6 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand Inventory Structure) - US Soybean Market: The January USDA report has a slightly negative impact. US soybeans are in a weak and volatile state due to the expected increase in Brazilian soybean output. The weather in South American soybean - growing areas and the implementation of Sino - US trade agreements affect the market [35]. - Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain: - Imported Soybean Arrivals: The arrivals of imported soybeans are at a low level at the beginning of the year, and the year - on - year figure has recently decreased [38]. - Oil Mill Pressing and Inventory: Oil mill soybean inventory is at a high level, and soybean meal inventory has declined from a high level. The soybean crushing volume has returned to a high level, and the soybean meal output in December increased year - on - year [39][40]. - Soybean Meal Transaction: The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have declined from a high level, and the备货 demand is expected to remain good [42]. - Pig - Breeding Inventory: Pig inventory has increased slightly year - on - year, sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and slightly month - on - month. Pig prices have fluctuated slightly recently, and piglet prices have remained weak [48][50]. 3.7 Technical Analysis - Soybeans: Futures are oscillating upwards. KDJ and MACD indicators show that the market is in a technical adjustment stage, and the future trend depends on new guidance [66]. - Soybean Meal: Futures are bottoming out and rebounding. KDJ and MACD indicators show that the market is in a technical rebound stage, and the future trend depends on US soybeans and new guidance [69]. 3.8 Next Week's Concerns - Most Important: The growth and harvesting weather in Brazilian soybean - growing areas, the implementation of Sino - US trade agreements, and the arrival of imported soybeans in China and the operation of oil mills [71]. - Second - Most Important: Domestic soybean meal demand, domestic oil mill inventory, and downstream purchases [72]. - Less Important: Macroeconomic factors and the situations of the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts [72]. 4. Trading Strategies - Soybean Meal: - Futures: US soybeans will fluctuate below the 1100 mark in the short - term, and soybean meal will maintain a range - bound pattern. The M2605 contract will fluctuate between 2700 and 2900 in the short - term, and short - term range trading is recommended. - Options: Sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [17][19]. - Soybeans: - Futures: The A2605 contract of soybeans will fluctuate between 4300 and 4500, and short - term range trading is recommended. - Options: Sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [20].