铝类市场周报：情绪释放消费淡季，铝类震荡波动剧烈-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - The fundamentals show that the supply is stable with a slight increase in operating capacity, but limited by the industry ceiling. The demand is weak due to the holiday and off - season, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading on the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. 2.2 Alumina - The supply is expected to slightly decrease due to the holiday and maintenance plans, but the inventory is relatively high. The demand remains stable as electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - level production. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading on the main contract of Alumina, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. 2.3 Cast Aluminum - The supply is relatively abundant with slow inventory reduction, and the demand is weak due to the off - season and cautious purchasing by downstream enterprises. The cost of scrap aluminum supports the price of cast aluminum. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading on the main contract of Cast Aluminum, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. 2.4 Option Market - Considering that the volatility of aluminum prices may expand in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to go long on volatility [68]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary 3.1.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - Supply side: Alumina prices are low, electrolytic aluminum plants have good theoretical profits, and production starts remain high with a slight increase in operating capacity, but limited by the industry ceiling. Demand side: Aluminum prices fluctuate significantly due to macro sentiment and the off - season, downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious, spot market transactions are light, and social inventory accumulates. Shanghai Aluminum's main contract is recommended for light - position oscillatory trading [5]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Raw material side: The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments is decreasing, and the support of bauxite prices for alumina is slightly weakened. Supply side: Due to the holiday and maintenance plans, domestic alumina production capacity and output are expected to decrease, but inventory is relatively high. Demand side: The demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum plants remains stable. Alumina's main contract is recommended for light - position oscillatory trading [6]. 3.1.3 Cast Aluminum - Raw material side: Aluminum prices have corrected after reaching a new high, scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the cost - quality logic of cast aluminum is still strong. Supply side: High raw material prices and supply shortages lead to reduced production by some enterprises, and inventory reduction is slow. Demand side: Downstream die - casting enterprises purchase cautiously, and actual orders are weak. Cast Aluminum's main contract is recommended for light - position oscillatory trading [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Price Trends - As of January 30, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum was 24,670 yuan/ton, up 1.82% from January 23; the closing price of LME Aluminum on January 29 was 3,218.5 US dollars/ton, up 2.75% from January 23. The alumina futures price was 2,595 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from January 23; the closing price of the main cast - aluminum contract was 22,820 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from January 23 [11][14]. 3.2.2 Position Changes - As of January 30, 2026, the trading volume of Shanghai Aluminum was 742,284 lots, an increase of 2.4% from January 23. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 4,602 lots, an increase of 68,582 lots from January 23 [17]. 3.2.3 Price Spreads - As of January 30, 2026, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,275 yuan/ton, an increase of 980 yuan/ton from January 23; the copper - aluminum futures price spread was 79,120 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,070 yuan/ton from January 23 [20]. 3.2.4 Spot Market - As of January 30, 2026, the average alumina price in Henan and Shanxi decreased by 0.57% and 0.19% respectively, and that in Guiyang decreased by 0.19%. The national average price of cast - aluminum alloy (ADC12) increased by 1.46%. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingots increased by 2.11%, and the spot discount decreased by 70 yuan/ton [24][27]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Inventory - As of January 29, 2026, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 2.27%, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 6.01%, and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 3.78%. SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased by 2.77%, and LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts increased by 8.04% [32]. 3.3.2 Bauxite - As of the latest data, the inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports decreased by 3.7 million tons month - on - month. In December 2025, the monthly import volume of bauxite decreased by 2.85% month - on - month and 2.02% year - on - year, while the cumulative import volume from January to December increased by 26.31% year - on - year [35]. 3.3.3 Scrap Aluminum - As of this week, the price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong increased by 400 yuan/ton week - on - week. In December 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap increased by 22.8% year - on - year, and the export volume decreased by 4.4% year - on - year [39]. 3.3.4 Alumina - In December 2025, the output of alumina increased by 6.7% year - on - year, and the cumulative output from January to December increased by 8% year - on - year. The import volume decreased by 1.99% month - on - month and increased by 1389.71% year - on - year, and the export volume increased [44]. 3.3.5 Electrolytic Aluminum - In December 2025, the import volume of electrolytic aluminum increased by 17.22% year - on - year, and the cumulative import volume from January to December increased by 18.82% year - on - year. The output in December increased by 3% year - on - year, and the cumulative output from January to December increased by 2.4% year - on - year [47][50]. 3.3.6 Aluminum Products - In December 2025, the output of aluminum products decreased by 0% year - on - year, and the cumulative output from January to December decreased by 0.2% year - on - year. The import volume increased by 7.1% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 7.7% year - on - year [54]. 3.3.7 Cast Aluminum Alloy - In December 2025, the monthly built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 0% month - on - month and increased by 15.96% year - on - year. The output decreased by 2.53% year - on - year [57]. 3.3.8 Aluminum Alloy - In December 2025, the output of aluminum alloy increased by 13.7% year - on - year, the import volume decreased by 11.81% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 20.03% year - on - year [60]. 3.3.9 Real Estate Market - In December 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44 from the previous month and 1.1 from the same period last year. From January to December 2024, the new housing construction area decreased by 20.47% year - on - year, and the housing completion area decreased by 23.9% year - on - year [63]. 3.3.10 Infrastructure Investment and Automobile Industry - From January to December 2024, infrastructure investment decreased by 1.48% year - on - year. In December 2025, China's automobile sales decreased by 6.2% year - on - year, and production decreased by 2.09% year - on - year [66]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given that the future volatility of aluminum prices may expand, a double - buying strategy can be considered to go long on volatility [68].