碳酸锂市场周报：供给暂稳采买备货，锂价或将有所支撑-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage where supply is temporarily stable and demand is improving, with inventory continuing to decline. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions on dips with a light position and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - Market Review: The main contract of lithium carbonate opened high and closed low on the weekly line, with a change rate of - 18.36% and an amplitude of 22.72%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 148,200 yuan/ton [5] - Macroeconomic Situation: The General Office of the State Council issued the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption", proposing 12 policy measures in three aspects [5] - Fundamentals: Lithium prices fluctuate greatly and are in high - level shock. Lithium ore producers have a strong sentiment of holding up prices, and ore prices are running strongly. Smelters have relatively sufficient raw materials and mainly adopt a wait - and - see attitude [5] - Supply: Smelters have sufficient raw material inventory in the factory, and some conduct hedging operations when the price on the disk is high. The overall production remains stable, and the shipping sentiment fluctuates with the lithium price on the disk. The domestic supply of lithium carbonate is temporarily stable and may converge to some extent as the holiday approaches [5] - Demand: Due to the large fluctuations in lithium prices, downstream inquiry and low - price stocking intentions are strengthened when prices fall, while they are relatively cautious at high prices [5] - Inventory: Upstream inventory decreases, downstream inventory increases, and the overall industrial inventory decreases slightly. Spot trading has improved compared with the previous period [5] - Viewpoint: Conduct short - term long positions on dips with a light position and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: The futures price fluctuates weakly. As of January 30, 2026, the closing price of the main contract of lithium carbonate was 148,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 33,320 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread of lithium carbonate was - 980 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 900 yuan/ton [6] - Spot Price: The spot price weakens. As of January 30, 2026, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 160,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10,500 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 12,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22,820 yuan/ton [14] 3.3 Upstream Market - Lithium Spodumene: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) strengthened. As of January 29, 2026, the average price was 2,045 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 180 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - to - RMB spot exchange rate was 6.946, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24% [18] - Lithium Mica: The quotation of lithium mica remained flat. As of January 30, 2026, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 7,150 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 16,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,075 yuan/ton [23] 3.4 Industry Situation - Supply: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,988.66 tons, an increase of 1,933.47 tons from November, a growth rate of 8.77%, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.43%. The monthly export volume was 911.898 tons, an increase of 152.66 tons from November, a growth rate of 20.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 45.97%. The monthly output was 56,820 tons, an increase of 2,840 tons from November, a growth rate of 5.26%, and a year - on - year increase of 50.08%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [30] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Hexafluorophosphate Lithium: The quotation of hexafluorophosphate lithium weakened. As of January 30, 2026, the average price was 138,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 yuan/ton. As of December 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 233,150 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons from November, a growth rate of 0.91%, and a year - on - year increase of 44.19% [33] - Lithium Iron Phosphate: The price of lithium iron phosphate increased. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 57,250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 34,000 yuan/ton. As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 269,330 tons, an increase of 440 tons from November, a growth rate of 0.16%, and a year - on - year increase of 32.48%. The monthly operating rate was 60%, a month - on - month decrease of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 6% [38] - Ternary Materials: The price of ternary materials increased, but the output decreased. As of December 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 60,430 tons, a decrease of 1,090 tons from November, a decline rate of 1.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.26%. The monthly operating rate was 50%, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811 type, 622 type, and 523 type continued to strengthen [41] - Lithium Manganate: The price of lithium manganate increased, but the monthly output decreased. As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,030 tons, a decrease of 180 tons from November, a decline rate of 1.76%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.52%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 56,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 35,000 yuan/ton [46] - Lithium Cobaltate: The quotation of lithium cobaltate remained flat, and the monthly output decreased. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 400,500 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 15,770 tons, a decrease of 280 tons from November, a decline rate of 1.74%, and a year - on - year increase of 118.72% [49] - New Energy Vehicles: The sales volume of new energy vehicles decreased. As of December 2025, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles/ cumulative sales of automobiles (penetration rate) was 47.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.45% and a year - on - year increase of 7.01%. The monthly output was 1,718,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 8.62%; the sales volume was 1,710,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 6.2%. The cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 2.615 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 103.66% [52][56] 3.6 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.47, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to short volatility by constructing a short straddle option [61]