沪铜市场周报：供给略减需求谨慎，多空分歧铜价震荡-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is in a stage of slightly converging supply and cautious demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and pay attention to controlling rhythm and trading risks [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Performance: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated, with a weekly increase of 2.1% and an amplitude of 13.31%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 103,170 yuan/ton [7] - International Situation: The Fed's January interest - rate meeting paused, keeping the interest rate in the 3.5 - 3.75% range. Milan and Waller supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Powell reiterated that the interest rate is at the upper end of the neutral range [7] - Domestic Situation: The General Office of the State Council issued a work plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, proposing 12 policy measures in three aspects [7] - Fundamentals: The TC spot index of copper concentrates continued to decline, and the supply of copper mines remained tight. The supply of domestic copper may slightly decrease, while downstream demand may have some bargain - hunting inventory replenishment needs but is still cautious. Domestic copper inventory shows seasonal accumulation [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Contract: As of January 30, 2026, the Shanghai copper main contract was quoted at 103,680 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,340 yuan/ton, and the open interest was 222,932 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 8,505 lots. The basis was - 2,020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 740 yuan/ton [12] - Spot Price: As of January 28, 2026, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 101,660 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 830 yuan/ton [20] - Cross - period Spread: As of January 30, 2026, the inter - month cross - period spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 730 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 240 yuan/ton [20] - Premium and Position: The CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper increased to 27 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 US dollars/ton. The net short position of the top 20 holders in Shanghai copper was - 67,473 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 6,497 lots [24] - Option Market: As of January 30, 2026, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main - contract at - the - money options was above the 90th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option open interest was 0.7272, a week - on - week increase of 0.0609 [30] 3.3 Industrial Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - Copper Concentrate and Processing Fees: The copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 94,810 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,100 yuan/ton. The southern rough copper processing fee was 2,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton [33] - Imports and Price Difference: In December 2025, the import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.7043 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 178,000 tons, an increase of 7.05% and a year - on - year increase of 7.24%. The refined - scrap copper price difference (tax - included) was 6,380.83 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 107.97 yuan/ton [38] - Global Production and Inventory: In November 2025, the global copper concentrate production was 1.923 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,000 tons, a decrease of 0.57%. The global capacity utilization rate was 78.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.9%. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 569,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,000 tons [43] 3.3.2 Supply Side - Refined Copper Production: In December 2025, the domestic refined copper production was 1.326 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 90,000 tons, an increase of 7.28% and a year - on - year increase of 6.76%. In November 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.371 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons, a decrease of 1.25%. The capacity utilization rate was 80.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% [45] - Refined Copper Imports: In December 2025, the import volume of refined copper was 298,027.317 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,677.56 tons, a decrease of 2.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 27%. The import profit and loss was - 4,080.22 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,629.37 yuan/ton [53][54] - Social Inventory: The LME total inventory increased by 4,375 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 12,528 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 10,058 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 335,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56,000 tons [57] 3.3.3 Downstream and Application - Copper Products: In December 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.2291 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons, an increase of 0.14%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 440,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons, an increase of 2.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.43% [63] - Power Grid and Appliance: As of November 2025, the cumulative investment in power and grid construction increased by - 1.8% and 5.9% year - on - year respectively. In December 2025, the monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by - 4.4%, - 9.6%, 5.7%, 7%, and - 1.2% year - on - year respectively [67] - Real Estate and Integrated Circuits: As of December 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 827.8814 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2% and a month - on - month increase of 5.34%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 484.279481 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.14% [74] 3.3.4 Overall Situation - Global Supply and Demand: According to ICSG statistics, in November 2025, the global refined copper supply was in surplus, with a surplus of 94,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 100,100 tons [79]