苹果市场周报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract declined with a weekly drop of about 0.18%. As the Spring Festival stocking gradually enters the incremental phase, the shipping speed in the production areas has significantly accelerated, with the Gansu production area performing better than others. Traders are still actively shipping their self - stored goods. As of January 28, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas across the country was 6.5405 billion tons, a decrease of 287,300 tons from last week. The inventory reduction speed has accelerated compared to last week and is slightly higher than the same period last year. In the Shandong production area, the storage capacity ratio is 49.01%, a decrease of 1.29% from last week, and in the Shaanxi production area, it is 50.85%, a decrease of 1.91% from last week. In the sales areas, there is a large backlog of goods in the transfer warehouses and on the ground vehicles, and the sales speed of gift - boxed goods is average. The price of general - quality fruit farmer goods is stable with a slight downward trend, while the price of high - quality goods is stable. It is expected that the apple price will remain volatile and slightly strong before the end of stocking [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - The price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract declined this week, with a weekly drop of about 0.18%. As the Spring Festival stocking enters the incremental phase, the shipping speed in production areas has accelerated, especially in Gansu. The national main - production - area cold - storage inventory decreased by 287,300 tons from last week, and the inventory reduction speed is slightly higher than last year. In Shandong and Shaanxi, the storage capacity ratios decreased. In the sales areas, there is a backlog of goods, and the sales of gift - boxed goods are average. The price of general - quality fruit farmer goods is stable with a slight decline, and high - quality goods prices are stable. Apple prices are expected to be volatile and slightly strong before the end of stocking [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - The price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract declined this week, with a weekly drop of about 0.18%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in apple futures is 729 lots, and the number of apple futures warrants is 0 [9][15]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - As of January 30, 2026, the mainstream price of fruit - farmer - owned bagged Red Fuji apples of 80 and above in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong is 3.7 yuan per catty; the price of bagged Fuji apples of 75 and above in Yiyuan, Shandong is 2.40 yuan per catty [18]. 3.3 Industry Situation and Options 3.3.1 Industry Chain - Supply Side: As of January 28, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas across the country was 6.5405 billion tons, a decrease of 287,300 tons from last week. The storage capacity ratio in the Shandong production area is 49.01%, a decrease of 1.29% from last week, and in the Shaanxi production area, it is 50.85%, a decrease of 1.91% from last week [23]. - Demand Side: - As of January 30, the average daily morning vehicle arrival volume at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong has increased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants is 0.3 yuan per catty [27]. - As of January 23, 2026, the average wholesale price of all apple varieties is 9.47 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.19 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 yuan per kilogram [32]. - As of January 23, 2026, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, grapes, pears, and watermelons) is 7.95 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 yuan per kilogram [36]. - In December 2025, China's fresh apple exports totaled about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.625% and a year - on - year increase of 28%. The export value is 162,842,207 US dollars [40]. 3.3.2 Options Market - Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week is presented in the form of a graph, but specific data is not provided [41]. 3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation - Information about the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit & Vegetable Co., Ltd. is presented in the form of a graph, but specific data is not provided [43].