白糖市场周报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 1.31%. The northern hemisphere sugar production is in the realization stage, and the raw sugar price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The Spring Festival stocking in China is nearing the end, and the stocking demand is lower than the same period last year. The support of the spot price is gradually weakening. The bearish factors in the fundamentals have continued to the present and are fully reflected in the price. The current market is in the bottom - building stage. Although there are no obvious bullish factors, the bearish factors have been gradually realized, and there are no new bearish factors. The price is blocked from further decline, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the release of production and sales data in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract price rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 1.31%. The raw sugar price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The Spring Festival stocking demand in China is lower than the same period last year, and the spot price support is weakening. The market is in the bottom - building stage, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Future attention factors include domestic imports and demand [5][6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 US Sugar Market - The price of the US Sugar March contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.14%. As of January 20, 2026, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar futures was 178,348 lots, an increase of 12,637 lots from the previous week. The long position was 143,656 lots, an increase of 162 lots from the previous week, and the short position was 322,004 lots, an increase of 12,799 lots from the previous week [12]. 3.2.2 International Raw Sugar Spot Price - This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 14.51 cents per pound, an increase of 0.05 cents per pound from last week [16]. 3.2.3 Zhengzhou Sugar Futures - The price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 1.31%. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou Sugar futures was - 73,438 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou Sugar warehouse receipts was 14,119. The price difference between the 5 - 9 contracts of Zhengzhou Sugar futures was - 16 yuan/ton, and the basis of spot - Zhengzhou Sugar was + 132 yuan/ton [20][27][31]. 3.2.4 Spot Market - As of January 30, the price of new sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,380 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar in Nanning was 5,350 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,343 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar outside the quota was 135 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,157 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar outside the quota was 68 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton from last week [37][43]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side - In December 2025, China's sugar imports were 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 316.67% and a month - on - month increase of 140,000 tons. From January to December 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 950% [52]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - In December 2025, China's monthly output of refined sugar was 3.5904 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The monthly output of soft drinks was 13.4214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [63]. 3.4 Option and Stock Market - Not detailed in the report for specific analysis of option and stock market, only relevant charts are presented.