瑞达期货宏观市场周报-20260130

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices declined collectively this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index falling less than 1%. The performance of the four stock - index futures was differentiated, with large - cap blue - chip stocks outperforming small and medium - cap stocks. The market sentiment for chasing growth sectors cooled, and the market tilted towards the value style. The trading activity in the market rebounded significantly compared with last week [6][12]. - This week, treasury bond futures showed mixed performance. The TS and TL main contracts fell by 0.02% and 0.34% respectively, while the TF and T main contracts rose by 0.01% and 0.11% respectively. The issuance plan of local bonds may indicate that the supply pressure in February is advanced, and the market's concern about the imbalance between supply and demand has not been fully alleviated. The large - scale net injection of MLF this month has reduced the market's expectation of a reserve requirement ratio cut in the first quarter. In addition, the optimistic expectation of the equity market may continue to suppress the bond market [6]. - The conflict between the US and Iran pushed up oil prices. Although precious metals were under heavy selling pressure due to profit - taking overnight, the decline narrowed significantly under the dual hedging sentiment of the US government's potential shutdown and regional tensions. Precious metals and crude oil are expected to remain strong in the short term, and the commodity index is expected to continue its strong trend [6]. - The US dollar continued its weak trend. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged as expected, and the tense situation between the US and Iran led to high market risk - aversion sentiment. The euro continued to strengthen, and the market expected the ECB to keep the interest rate unchanged next week. The Bank of Japan maintained the interest rate unchanged, and the domestic CPI in Japan declined slightly from a high level [10]. - In 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China increased year - on - year, reversing the three - year decline. The profits of equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing increased significantly, and the long - term positive trend of industrial enterprise profits remained unchanged [11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - Stock: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 0.08%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock - index futures fell 0.07%. A - share major indices declined collectively, and the market tilted towards the value style. The trading activity rebounded. The allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [6]. - Bond: The 10 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.07% this week, with a change of - 0.14BP, and the main 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.10%. Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance. The allocation suggestion is to operate within a range [6]. - Commodity: The Wind Commodity Index rose 5.71%, and the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index rose 3.33%. Precious metals and crude oil are expected to remain strong. The allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [6]. - Foreign Exchange: The euro against the US dollar rose 0.75%, and the euro against the US dollar 2603 contract rose 0.59%. The US dollar continued to be weak. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. 2. Important News and Events - Domestic: By the end of 2025, the total assets of central state - owned enterprises exceeded 95 trillion yuan. The central bank will expand the scope of macro - prudential policies. Policies to cultivate new growth points in service consumption will be introduced. In 2025, 12.67 million new urban jobs were created in China [14]. - International: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%. The EU and India reached a free - trade agreement. Talks between Ukraine, the US, and Russia ended, and the next round may be held next week. The US population growth slowed significantly last year [15]. 3. This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - China: The year - on - year growth rate of the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in December 2025 was 5.3% [16]. - US: The monthly rate of durable goods orders in November was 5.3%, the annual rate of the S&P/CS 20 - city non - seasonally adjusted house price index was 1.4%, the Fed's interest rate decision (upper limit) on January 28 was 3.75%, the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending January 24 was 209,000, the monthly rate of factory orders in November was 2.7%, and the monthly rate of wholesale sales in November was 1.3% [16]. - EU: The industrial sentiment index in the eurozone in January was - 6.8, and the economic sentiment index was 99.4 [16]. - Germany: The IFO business climate index in January was 87.6 [16]. 4. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - February 2: US January ISM Manufacturing PMI (previous value: 47.9) [79]. - February 3: France January CPI monthly rate preliminary value (previous value: 0.1) [79]. - February 4: Eurozone January CPI monthly rate preliminary value (previous value: 0.2), Eurozone December PPI monthly rate (previous value: 0.5), US January ADP employment (previous value: 410,000) [79]. - February 5: France December industrial output monthly rate (previous value: - 0.1), UK central bank interest rate decision (previous value: 3.75%), eurozone European Central Bank deposit facility rate (previous value: 2) [79]. - February 6: Germany December seasonally adjusted industrial output monthly rate (previous value: 0.8), US January unemployment rate (previous value: 4.4%), US January seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls (previous value: 500,000) [79].