大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20260130

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PTA: Affected by the overnight sharp rise in crude oil, PTA futures fluctuated upward yesterday, but the spot market negotiation atmosphere was light and the spot basis was weak. As the Spring Festival approaches, polyester production cuts are expanding, and PTA supply and demand are accumulating. However, recent capital attention to PTA has increased, with significant position - building and price increases in the past two days, and the PTA processing margin has improved. Under the supply - demand game between PX and PTA, attention should be paid to the unplanned increase in the PTA supply side in the later stage [5]. - MEG: On Wednesday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated and adjusted, and the basis was stable. The intraday ethylene glycol futures showed a range adjustment, with average buying interest in the market. The negotiation volume of recent goods decreased, and some traders were actively selling. In the short term, the ethylene glycol price center is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the commodity and cost trends. Also, as the ethylene glycol price platform rises, be vigilant about the return of the operating load of existing plants [7]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 (Previous Day Review) No relevant content provided. 2.每日提示 (Daily Tips) No relevant content provided. 3.今日关注 (Today's Focus) No relevant content provided. 4.基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) PTA - Price and Basis: Spot price is 5250 yuan/ton, 05 - contract basis is - 120, and the futures price is at a premium, showing a bearish signal. The price negotiation range is 5160 - 5300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream spot basis yesterday was 05 - 80 [5][6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory is 3.62 days, a 0.02 - day increase compared to the previous period, which is bearish [6]. - Technical Analysis: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish signal [6]. - Position Analysis: The net position of the main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [6]. MEG - Price and Basis: The price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated and adjusted on Wednesday, and the basis was stable. The intraday futures showed a range adjustment, with average buying interest. The recent goods were mainly traded, and the negotiation volume of February goods decreased. The price of recent overseas shipments was around 458 - 464 US dollars/ton, and the price of February shipments was around 468 US dollars/ton. The spot price is 3843 yuan/ton, 05 - contract basis is - 127, and the futures price is at a premium, showing a bearish signal [7][8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 74.1 tons, a 0.8 - ton increase compared to the previous period, which is bearish [8]. - Technical Analysis: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish signal [8]. - Position Analysis: The net position of the main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - PX: The PX supply - demand balance table shows production, import, demand, inventory changes, and other data from September 2025 to June 2026, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and balance situation of PX during this period [13]. - PTA: The PTA supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, consumption, and surplus data from October 2025 to September 2026, as well as year - on - year and cumulative changes in production and consumption [14]. - MEG: The ethylene glycol supply - demand balance table shows production, import, consumption, and surplus data from October 2025 to September 2026, as well as year - on - year changes in production, import, and consumption [15]. Price and Profit Data - Price Changes: The prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers have changed to varying degrees from January 27 to January 28, 2026 [16]. - Profit Changes: The processing margins and profits of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers have also changed, including PTA processing fees, MEG production profits from different raw materials, and polyester fiber production margins [16]. Other Data and Charts - PET Bottle Chip: Data on bottle chip spot prices, production margins, operating rates, capacity utilization, and inventory are provided, showing their trends from 2022 to 2026 [19][20][22][25]. - Price Spreads: Data on PTA and MEG month - to - month spreads, basis spreads, and spot spreads are provided, showing their trends from 2022 to 2026 [28][34][41]. - Inventory Analysis: Data on the inventory of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers are provided, showing their trends from 2021 to 2026 [44][48]. - Operating Rates: Data on the operating rates of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester, and textile enterprises are provided, showing their trends from 2022 to 2026 [55][59]. - Profit Analysis: Data on the production margins of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers are provided, showing their trends from 2022 to 2026 [62][63][66].