瑞达期货铂镍金市场周报-20260130

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the London platinum and palladium markets trended weaker in a volatile manner. The Fed maintained interest rates as expected, and future policies will depend on data. The expectation of a rate cut in March this year has weakened, but there is still an expectation of a rate cut in the second half of the year. The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Iran may provide potential safe - haven support for platinum and palladium prices. [7] - The EU postponed the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and strengthened vehicle exhaust emission standards, increasing the demand for platinum in automotive catalysts by about 450,000 ounces this year. Although the global passenger car sales are slightly adjusted downwards, the increasing penetration of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum. The IEA's latest hydrogen outlook also confirms that the cumulative installed capacity of PEM electrolyzers is expected to exceed 17GW by 2030, providing potential upside for platinum prices. [7] - In the short term, there are many global macro - disturbance factors, and high market volatility may continue. In the medium - to - long term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium will still dominate the trading rhythm. The uncertainty of South Africa's power supply and Russia's exports, along with the implementation of new vehicle emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium. The supply - demand pattern divergence may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - The London platinum and palladium markets trended weaker in a volatile manner this week. The Fed's interest - rate decision was in line with market expectations. The expectation of a rate cut in March has weakened, but there is still a possibility in the second half of the year. The US - Iran situation may support prices. [7] - The EU's new policies on vehicle emissions will increase the demand for platinum in automotive catalysts. The long - term demand for platinum may improve. The market will be volatile in the short term, and the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" trend may continue in the medium - to - long term. The resistance and support levels for London platinum are $2,800/oz and $2,600/oz respectively, and for London palladium are $2,100/oz and $1,900/oz respectively. [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - On Friday, there was concentrated profit - taking in the precious - metals market, leading to a significant correction in the platinum and palladium markets. As of January 30, 2026, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's palladium futures contract 2606 rose 6.81% week - on - week to 464.05 yuan/gram, while the platinum futures contract 2606 fell 8.07% week - on - week to 630.55 yuan/gram. [8][12] - The net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium continued to diverge. As of January 20, 2026, the net long position of NYMEX platinum was 21,782 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 8.50%, and that of NYMEX palladium was - 2,762 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4.43%. [13][17] - The basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium futures contracts weakened this week. [18] - NYMEX platinum inventory decreased, while palladium inventory increased. As of January 29, 2026, NYMEX platinum inventory was 655,182.10 ounces, a week - on - week decrease of 1.61%, and palladium inventory was 224,021.17 ounces, a week - on - week increase of 3.59%. [22][26] - The ratio of NYMEX platinum to COMEX gold has significantly increased compared to the beginning of 2025. [27] - Recently, the positive correlation between platinum prices and NYMEX platinum exchange inventory and US Treasury real yields has rebounded. [32] 3.3 Industry Supply - Demand Situation - As of December 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum and palladium both increased. [37] - The demand for platinum in automotive exhaust catalysts is marginally weakening. The total global demand for platinum and palladium is showing a mild slow - down trend. Due to geopolitical conflicts and power - supply disruptions, the global supply of platinum and palladium is decreasing. The price difference between London and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange for platinum and palladium has become stable. [43][52][56] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - This week, the US dollar index continued to weaken, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield remained basically unchanged. [60]