大越期货原油周报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, crude oil oscillated and rose at the end of the week. The prices of major crude oil futures in New York, London, and China all increased. Geopolitical events and supply - demand factors influenced the price. Geopolitical concerns continued to support oil prices, but the demand side faced medium - to - long - term pressure, limiting the upside of prices. Short - term trading is recommended in the range of 430 - 465, and long - term investment should be on hold [5][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - Last week, crude oil prices showed an overall upward trend. The New York Mercantile Exchange's main light crude oil futures closed at $61.28 per barrel, up 3.48% for the week; London Brent crude oil futures closed at $65.44 per barrel, up 1.93% for the week; China's crude oil futures SC main contract closed at 449.8 yuan per barrel, up 2.51% for the week. Geopolitical events, supply disruptions, and demand forecasts affected the price. The speculative net long positions of Brent and WTI crude oil increased, attracting long - term investors [5] - Kazakhstan's largest oil field, Tengiz, has been shut down due to a power outage, and production has not yet resumed. It is expected that Kazakhstan's average daily crude oil production in January will be only 1 - 1.1 million barrels, compared with a normal level of about 1.8 million barrels [5] - India's Reliance Industries will receive Russian crude oil that complies with sanctions in February and March. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth but warns that supply is still expected to exceed demand. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its first meeting this year [6] 3.2 Related News - The US Central Command Chief is expected to arrive in Israel for a meeting. Trump retains the possibility of attacking Iran, and the US has increased its military deployment in the Middle East. The tri - party talks between Ukraine, the US, and Russia have made some progress on military issues but not on territorial issues. The Federal Reserve's interest - rate decision and Trump's tariff threats may affect oil demand [7] 3.3 Outlook - Short - term trading is recommended in the range of 430 - 465, and long - term investment should be on hold. The short - term focus of the oil market is on geopolitical events, and attention should be paid to the US's actions against Iran [7] 3.4 Fundamental Data - Spot Weekly Prices: The prices of various types of crude oil showed different changes. For example, the price of UK Brent Dtd increased by 0.22%, while the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) decreased by 0.21% [10] - Inventory Data: The Cushing inventory and EIA inventory showed different trends over time. For example, the Cushing inventory increased by 147.8 barrels to 2506.3 barrels on January 16, and the EIA inventory increased by 360.2 barrels to 42604.9 barrels on the same day [12][13] 3.5持仓数据 - CFTC Fund Net Long Positions: As of the week of January 20, speculators' net long positions in WTI crude oil increased by 20,664 contracts to 78,792 contracts [19] - ICE Fund Net Long Positions: As of the week of January 20, the speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil increased by 8,509 contracts to 216,970 contracts [21]