大越期货沪铝周报-20260130

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - Last week, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated at a high level. The main contract rose 1.53%, closing at 24,290 yuan/ton on Friday. Under the carbon - neutral policy, long - term capacity control, domestic real - estate demand suppression, and the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products are negative factors for domestic aluminum prices, affecting consumption. However, there are opportunities for aluminum to replace copper. Currently, domestic demand is in the off - season, and later consumption changes should be monitored. The LME inventory last week was 507,275 tons, showing a slight increase compared to the previous week, and the SHFE weekly inventory increased by 11,174 tons to 197,053 tons [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated at a high level last week. The main contract rose 1.53%, closing at 24,290 yuan/ton on Friday. The carbon - neutral policy, real - estate demand suppression, and cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products are negative for domestic aluminum prices, and consumption is affected. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and later consumption changes should be noted. The LME inventory last week was 507,275 tons, slightly increasing from the previous week, and the SHFE weekly inventory increased by 11,174 tons to 197,053 tons [3]. 3.2 Fundamentals (Inventory Structure) - Supply - Demand Balance Table: The report provides the annual supply - demand balance table of aluminum in China from 2018 to 2024. In 2018, the supply - demand balance was - 47.6 tons; in 2019, it was - 68.61 tons; in 2020, it was 1.3 tons; in 2021, it was - 14.2 tons; in 2022, it was - 29.98 tons; in 2023, it was - 4.3 tons; and in 2024, it is expected to be 15 tons [11]. 3.3 Market Structure - Spot - Futures Spread: No specific content provided. - Import Profit: No specific content provided.