大越期货沪铜周报-20260130

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated at a high level, with the main contract of Shanghai copper rising 0.57% to close at 101,340 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and global instability supported copper prices, while domestic consumption was in the off - season with general downstream consumption willingness. The domestic spot trading was mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory increased significantly, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 12,422 tons to 225,937 tons. The copper market is in a tight balance in 2024 and will be in surplus in 2025 [4][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper rose 0.57% to close at 101,340 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and global instability supported copper prices, and domestic consumption was in the off - season with general downstream consumption willingness. The domestic spot trading was mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory increased significantly, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 12,422 tons to 225,937 tons [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - PMI: No specific content provided. - Supply - Demand Balance: The copper market is in a tight balance in 2024 and will be in surplus in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 to 2024 [11][14]. - Inventory: Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [15][20]. 3.3 Market Structure - Processing Fee: The processing fee is at a low level [23]. - CFTC Position: CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [25]. - Spot - Futures Price Difference: No specific content provided. - Import Profit: No specific content provided. - Warehouse Receipt: No specific content provided.